UN report forecasts global economic output to grow 2.7 percent in 2026

UNITED NATIONS -- Global economic output is forecast to grow by 2.7 percent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 percent estimated for 2025 and well below the pre-pandemic average of 3.2 percent, according to the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, released Thursday by the United Nations.

Economic growth in the United States is projected at 2 percent in 2026, compared to 1.9 percent in 2025, supported by monetary and fiscal easing. In the European Union, economic growth is forecast at 1.3 percent in 2026, down from 1.5 percent in 2025, as higher US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty dampen exports.

For the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia, growth is projected at 2.1 percent in 2026, mostly unchanged from 2025, even as the Ukraine crisis continues to weigh on macroeconomic conditions, the report said.

Meanwhile, in East Asia, growth is projected at 4.4 percent in 2026, down from 4.9 percent in 2025 as the boost from front-loaded exports fades. Output in Japan is expected to expand by 0.9 percent in 2026, compared with 1.2 percent in 2025.

In South Asia, growth is forecast at 5.6 percent in 2026, easing from 5.9 percent, led by India's 6.6 percent expansion, while in Western Asia, GDP is expected to grow by 4.1 percent in 2026, up from 3.4 percent in 2025, according to the report.

Output in Africa, where high debt and climate-related shocks pose significant risks, is projected to grow by 4 percent in 2026, marginally up from 3.9 percent in 2025.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, output is expected to expand by 2.3 percent in 2026, slightly down from 2.4 percent in 2025, amid moderate growth in consumer demand and a mild recovery in investment.

According to the report, global trade proved resilient in 2025, expanding by a faster-than-expected 3.8 percent despite elevated policy uncertainty and rising tariffs.

The expansion was driven by the front-loading of shipments early in the year and robust growth in services trade. However, trade growth is projected to slow to 2.2 percent in 2026.