Cherry supplies sidestep preholiday woes

CHENGDU/SANTIAGO — For much of the past decade, Chile's export of cherries to China ran on a narrow calendar.

From December to early the following year, the fruit ripened in Chile's central valleys. Weeks later, just ahead of the Chinese New Year, those cherries arrived as a seasonal luxury, scarce, expensive and tightly bound to the holiday. The logic was simple: southern-hemisphere harvests met Northern Hemisphere festivities, and value depended on timing as much as taste.

That logic is now weakening.

In early 2026, more than a month before Chinese New Year, Chilean cherries were already widely available in China at prices far below previous norms. Boxes of JJ-level Chilean cherry (with a diameter of 28 to 30 millimeters) weighing about 2.5 kilograms were selling for around 159 yuan ($22.7) in major supermarkets in Chengdu, Southwest China's Sichuan province, with some promotional prices falling to 99 yuan, roughly 40 percent lower than a year earlier.

At local wholesale markets, prices fell even more sharply, with some high-grade cherries priced at nearly half of last year's level.

Such movements do not point to a weakening of demand. Rather, they reflect a structural change in how supply reaches the market.

Importers say the traditional preholiday bottleneck has eased, as improved logistics have reduced the need for cherries to flood the market in a short festive window.

The redistribution of time has institutional roots.

China and Chile's upgraded free trade agreement in 2017 placed more than 97 percent of traded products under zero tariffs, lowering the fixed costs of entry for Chilean cherries. Over time, it encouraged not just higher volumes but investment in logistics capable of delivering large quantities with greater predictability.

The result is a highly concentrated trade relationship. In the previous harvest season, more than 90 percent of Chile's cherry exports went to China. That degree of demand certainty has allowed the industry to organize production and shipments across the entire season, rather than around a single holiday peak.

Claudia Soler, executive director of the Cherries Committee of Fruits from Chile, described the relationship as both economic and cultural. China, she said, is the market that enabled the industry's expansion. The cherry's red color and rounded shape, she added, closely align with Chinese cultural symbolism, especially around the Chinese New Year, when cherries became a popular gift symbolizing happiness and success.

Since 2018, Chile has operated a direct shipping route to China known as the "cherry express", cutting transit time from roughly 30 days to about 23 days. By the end of 2025, this dedicated shipping corridor had been further scaled up, doubling the number of direct sailings compared with the previous year. This allows cherries to arrive in China in greater volumes during the peak harvest season.

This shift has reshaped incentives at the production end. Data from the office of agrarian studies and policies at Chile's Ministry of Agriculture show that the cherry planting area has expanded roughly twenty-fold since 2000, nearly doubling from about 38,392 hectares in 2019 to 70,686 hectares by 2024.

Industry participants attribute this rapid growth in part to the gradual formation of a logistics system geared toward the Chinese market, which has given Chilean growers clearer expectations over timing, allowing them to expand planting and plan output with greater confidence.

Processing hubs in Chile's central regions now operate on a different temporal logic. Time remains critical, but it is no longer singular. In the past, a delayed shipment could miss the Chinese New Year altogether, erasing margins and turning a strong harvest into a liability. Today, improved transport has allowed exporters to distribute shipments across the season, reducing the risk concentrated in any single sailing.

For Chinese consumers, cherries are no longer limited to a short preholiday rush, easing the need for concentrated buying ahead of Chinese New Year. Fruit exporters from Chile estimate that in the 2025-2026 season, Chile will export about 110 million boxes of cherries (five kilograms per box, roughly 550,000 metric tons), with more than 90 percent destined for China.

Xinhua - China Daily