What $11.1 billion buys: Security illusions and ever-rising cross-strait tensions

What could $11.1 billion achieve if spent on the needs of people rather than weapons? It could build dozens of modern hospitals and schools, fund major transport infrastructure, or provide life-saving aid to millions of children in disaster-stricken regions. Instead, on December 17, 2025, the United States approved an $11.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan, the largest such deal since 1979.

From Beijing's perspective, this decision represents blatant interference in China's internal affairs and a direct attempt to obstruct China's national reunification. It contradicts explicit US commitments under the three China–US joint communiques — particularly the August 17 Communique, in which Washington pledged to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan.

Contrary to claims that these weapons protect Taiwan, the arms sales have had the opposite effect. They have emboldened the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities — now led by Lai Ching-te — to pursue increasingly confrontational policies. This has pushed the island ever closer to a dangerous tipping point.

The motivations behind these arms sales are not difficult to discern: to score domestic political points in the US, to line the pockets of defense contractors, and to hinder China's reunification. None of these serves peace or the well-being of the people in Taiwan — and in fact, such reckless actions risk backfiring, potentially dragging the US into a conflict it cannot control.

The financial burden, however, falls on people in Taiwan. Lai Ching-te has pledged an ever-deepening alignment with Washington — even at the cost of Taiwan's own economic strengths — while proposing to raise the island's "defense" spending to 5 percent of their GDP by 2030. Arms deals for Taiwan are notoriously overpriced and slow to deliver, they drain public resources, weaken livelihoods, and ultimately bleed the island dry.

In response, China launched joint military drills — a targeted, legitimate, and necessary response to separatist provocations and external interference. These drills were not intended to change the status quo, but to deter further erosion of it.

The reality is clear: China has not been the party altering the cross-Strait status quo. That responsibility lies with the Lai Ching-te led authorities who reject the political foundation of cross-Strait relations, and with external powers that continue to renege on their commitments. China's actions are defensive in nature, aimed at safeguarding sovereignty and preventing miscalculation — not at escalating conflict.

The arms sales cannot alter the strategic reality. They do not shift the balance of power across the Strait, nor do they offer Taiwan a viable path to long-term security. Every time Taiwan's separatist forces seek foreign backing to provoke tensions, China responds with even greater pressure. Counting on external backing to resist reunification is not only unrealistic, it is self-defeating.

The Taiwan question strikes at the very core of China's national interests, in which Beijing has no room for compromise. Taiwan's return to the motherland is not optional — it is a historical inevitability. Netizens on both sides of the Strait recently selected the Chinese character "shi" (momentum) — as the 2025 Cross-Strait Character of the Year, reflecting a shared recognition of where history is moving.

Thailand has long upheld the one-China policy. In the China–Thailand Joint Statement released in February 2025, Thailand reaffirmed its commitment to the one-China policy, recognizing the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government representing the whole of China and Taiwan as an inalienable part of China, and pledged not to support any call for the independence of Taiwan. Thailand also supports China's "one country, two systems" policy.

The Thai people are well placed to see where history is heading, and to understand the deep national trauma China continues to bear from its unfinished reunification, and why China will never tolerate national division. Against this backdrop, it is essential to remain clear-eyed: any form of "Taiwan independence" is both historically misguided and strategically dangerous. A principled and responsible stance requires rejecting separatism in all its forms and supporting China's legitimate and irreversible pursuit of national reunification.

Xian Feng is a commentator on international affairs. 

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.

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