China fortifies energy security as risks rise

With rising global geopolitical uncertainties, China is poised to further strengthen energy security over the coming years, with the nation's energy self-sufficiency rate projected to reach 85 percent by 2030, according to a recent industry report.

Against an increasingly complicating global landscape and heightened volatility in traditional energy hubs such as Russia, Venezuela and Iran, China is developing a diversified energy system and technological innovations to fortify its national energy resilience, according to the report by the Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research of Beijing Institute of Technology.

This shift comes as the world's largest energy consumer nears a historic turning point: the peaking of both coal and oil consumption during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period, it said.

The resilience of the energy supply chain in China is strengthening amid a complex global environment, with a decline in coal and net oil imports, said Liao Hua, director of the center.

This resilience is further bolstered by improved cross-regional power sharing and enhanced storage capabilities, which allow the grid to balance supply and demand with unprecedented precision, he said.

The rapid scaling of renewable infrastructure and immense investment in next-generation technologies are shielding China's economic growth from reliance on foreign energy imports. By the end of the decade, clean energy — including hydro, nuclear, wind and solar power — is expected to account for over 35 percent of total energy consumption, it said.

According to Liao, investors are moving beyond current mainstream tech, shifting capital toward frontier energy sectors including solid-state batteries, fourth-generation nuclear power and controllable nuclear fusion, all of which have emerged as the new strategic focuses for State and private capital alike.

Capacity for advanced storage solutions is projected to exceed 350 million kilowatts by 2030. While lithiumion remains the dominant route, long-duration technologies such as all-vanadium redox flow batteries and compressed air energy storage are gaining traction, he said.

Widely regarded as the next generation of energy storage technology, all-solid-state batteries utilize noncombustible solid electrolytes to achieve a decisive leap in both operational safety and energy density.

China completed its first high-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in November, built by State-owned automaker GAC Group. As the first in the country capable of producing solid-state batteries with capacities above 60 ampere-hours for automotive use, it is considered a step toward commercializing a technology seen as key to extending electric-vehicle range and improving safety.

According to the center, China's energy system is transitioning from policy-driven to market-led, heralding a trend that the cost of energy as a share of GDP is expected to further drop from roughly 13 percent in 2025 to below 11 percent by 2030 as the efficiency of the new energy system improves.

Crucially, the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to usher in the peak of traditional fossil fuels. Total energy consumption is forecast to hit approximately 7 billion metric tons of standard coal equivalent by 2030, with fossil fuels accounting for 5.1 billion tons, said Liao.

While natural gas will continue to serve as a bridge fuel, overall carbon emissions are slated to plateau and begin falling, he said.

On the global stage, China's role is evolving from a product exporter to a provider of integrated energy solutions. China already produces 80 percent of the world's lithium-ion batteries.

While energy use in heavy industries such as steel and building materials is declining, the digital economy is emerging as a massive consumer of power. Electricity demand from information technology services, specifically artificial intelligence computing centers, is expected to maintain high-speed growth, said the report.

Total power consumption is estimated to approach 14 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2030. However, this surge brings integration challenges.

zhengxin@chinadaily.com.cn