China's commercial satellite sector prepares for takeoff

Looking forward, Pan predicted that over the next three to five years, the market will feature multiple coexisting systems, including BeiDou, the Tiantong satellite system, and emerging low-Earth orbit internet constellations.

He emphasized that future terminals will likely be compatible with multiple systems, allowing seamless switching based on user needs.

However, the realization of these commercial ambitions depends heavily on the availability of orbital slots and the physical capacity to launch hardware into space.

The recent applications for 203,000 satellites by China highlight the intensifying competition for near-Earth orbit resources.

Zhang Zhilong, an associate professor at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, compared the current constellation boom to a game of musical chairs.

Low-Earth orbit is a limited resource, constrained by the physical need for safe spacing between objects to prevent collisions.

According to a white paper by CCID Consulting and other industry analyses cited by Science and Technology Daily, the estimated safe capacity of low-Earth orbit satellites ranges from 60,000 to 175,000 — a threshold global filings have already exceeded.

Under International Telecommunication Union rules, the "first come, first served" principle applies to these resources, but it comes with strict "use it or lose it" deadlines.

Once a frequency and orbit are filed, the applicant must launch the first satellite within seven years and deploy 10 percent of the total constellation within nine years.

Failure to meet these milestones results in the loss of priority rights. This regulatory clock is placing immense pressure on China to increase its launch capacity and reduce costs immediately.

China's current launch capabilities are racing to catch up with the manufacturing output of satellite factories like GalaxySpace.

In 2025, China conducted 92 launches, deploying just over 300 commercial satellites. This figure must grow exponentially to meet the targets implied by the new filings. The industry is looking toward a new generation of liquid-fueled, reusable rockets to bridge this gap and lower the price of access to space.

Several commercial rocket companies are preparing for orbital launches in 2026, including the highly anticipated Tianlong-3 developed by Space Pioneer.

Designed specifically to address the need for large-scale constellation deployment, the Tianlong-3 features a diameter of 3.8 meters and a total thrust of 840 metric tons, benchmarking it against the performance of the Falcon 9. Its first stage is powered by nine "Tianhuo-12" engines, providing the thrust-to-weight ratio necessary for heavy payloads.

Crucially, its large composite fairing is capable of carrying dozens of satellites in a single mission. Ground tests in late 2025 verified a "one rocket, 36 satellites" configuration, a capability essential for the economic viability of mega-constellations.

Lin from GalaxySpace emphasized that the global market is large enough to accommodate alternative solutions to Starlink. He noted that more than 2.5 billion people worldwide still lack internet access, representing a massive untapped economy.

GalaxySpace is actively expanding its international footprint, particularly in Southeast Asia and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative.

In Thailand, the company has partnered with local operators and universities to build ground stations and test satellite internet applications. These trials include remote medical consultations and connecting vehicles to the satellite network.

These trials marked the first time low-Earth orbit broadband has been utilized in Thailand. Similar agreements have been signed in Hong Kong to explore applications in the Middle East and Africa.

Lin argued that China's strong industrial base and the integration of internet technology with aerospace give it a distinct advantage in manufacturing. He expressed confidence that the global market needs diverse options that are inclusive, flexible and widely applicable.

Pan from Norinco also stressed the importance of international compliance and clear guidelines for overseas operations.

He noted that while Chinese satellite systems have high potential abroad, the lack of clear regulatory frameworks has hindered the establishment of robust business models.

Pan called for government departments to provide clearer guidance to help companies navigate the complex legal landscapes of international operations. He suggested that with proper support, services like the BeiDou short message could find widespread use in global search and rescue.

The convergence of policy support, technological maturation and capital investment suggests 2026 could be a watershed year for the sector.

The establishment of the Radio Innovation Institute in Xiong'an New Area, which spearheaded the massive satellite filings, indicates a coordinated national strategy bringing together regulators and enterprises.

As the seven-year countdown for the new satellite filings begins, the industry faces a clear mandate: build fast, launch faster and prove commercial viability.

For engineers like Lin and Pan, the era of theoretical planning has ended, replaced by the relentless pace of industrial execution.