BRI activity hits record high in 2025

The Belt and Road Initiative recorded its most active year in 2025, with China's overseas engagement reaching unprecedented levels to $214 billion, highlighted by the large scale and a surge in renewable energy projects, according to a new report.

The study, jointly published by the Green Finance & Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai and the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University in Australia, found that China signed $128.4 billion in construction contracts and made more than $85 billion in investments last year.

The country's energy-related engagement surged to $94 billion, the highest since the BRI's inception in 2013 and more than double the level recorded in 2024, the report said.

Investment deals exceeding $100 million reached a record $939 million in 2025, up from $672 million in 2024 and nearly three times the level recorded in 2020.

For construction projects, the average deal size climbed to $964 million, up from $496 million in 2024. The increase was driven by megaprojects, including a $20 billion construction project in Nigeria and two investment projects valued at more than $5 billion each in Kazakhstan.

Africa recorded the largest share of construction engagement, followed by the Middle East. The report attributed Africa's strong performance partly to the United States tariff differentials, which are lower in some African countries than in other nations such as Vietnam.

Nigeria recorded the highest construction volume last year at about $25 billion, up from $1.8 billion a year ago. It was followed by the Republic of Congo with $23 billion, Saudi Arabia with $20 billion, and Iraq with $4.5 billion.

Aly-Khan Satchu, a Kenyan investment banker, said Africa remains a key priority for China, highlighting the scale and consistency of its engagement.

"The continent's overarching goal has to be job creation and then more equitable benefaction," he said."China has been the cheerleader for Africa's infrastructure investments — whether railways, road or digital infrastructure — without which no jobs will be created. The degree of current alignment between China and Africa is remarkable."

Regarding investment, Central Asia emerged as the largest recipient of Chinese capital, followed by Southeast Asia with $21 billion and Africa with $19 billion.

Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Romania, Ecuador, and Sri Lanka recorded the largest growth of BRI engagement.

Fredrick Otieno, a scholar on China-Africa relations in Kenya, said the record level of BRI activity in 2025 signals a strategic shift.

High-value projects in energy, critical minerals and manufacturing accounted for most of the growth, supporting China's objectives of strengthening supply chains, advancing industrial upgrading and enhancing energy security, he said.

Energy remained the dominant focus of China's overseas BRI engagement, accounting for 43 percent of total in 2025, up from 32.5 percent in 2024.

Green energy engagement also hit the highest level since 2013, with more than $18 billion invested in wind, solar and waste-to-energy projects, alongside $3 billion in hydropower. China's total engagement in green energy and hydropower exceeded $21 billion last year, up from $12 billion the previous year.

However, Otieno cautioned that continued growth will be constrained by financial risks, geopolitical concerns and stricter lending regulations.

"Chinese lenders are becoming more cautious, preferring fewer projects with clearer returns and greater risk-sharing," he said. "As a result, rather than experiencing consistent, across-the-board expansion, BRI engagement might remain considerable but is likely to level off into a selective, risk-aware pattern, with periodic spikes driven by strategic sectors."

Looking ahead, the Fudan-Griffith report anticipates continued Chinese engagement in energy, mining and new technologies in 2026, shaped by global trade volatility, supply chain pressures and the search for new export markets — though with fewer megadeals than in 2025.

edithmutethya@chinadaily.com.cn