Brazil eyes visa-free policy for China

China and Brazil are moving toward easing travel between the two countries, a step analysts say could deepen one of the world's most important South-South economic relationships.

Following an announcement in late January that unveiled a decision by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to grant visa-free entry for certain short-term visits by Chinese citizens, expectations are high for a surge in bilateral exchanges. While the Brazilian side has not yet announced the exact implementation date, the move is widely seen as a reciprocal gesture to China's visa-free policy, effective from June 1, 2025, to Dec 31, 2026, which allows Brazilian passport holders to enter China visa-free for up to 30 days for business, tourism, family visits and transit.

Analysts say the impending visa waiver will lower the cost of doing business and will improve efficiencies across trade and investment channels.

"Visa-free travel will facilitate the entire commercial process — from market research and negotiations to factory inspections and post-investment personnel mobility," said Zhou Mi, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, highlighting the strong complementarities between the two economies.

China's advantages lie in machinery, electronics, new energy vehicles and traditional automobiles, while Brazil is highly competitive in agriculture-related industries, Zhou said. Additionally, China has strengths in large-scale infrastructure construction, where efficiency and integrated supply chains offer room for cooperation in Brazil.

Those complementarities are already reflected in the data. A recent study from the Brazil-China Business Council showed that bilateral trade hit a new record in 2025, reaching $171 billion, an 8.2 percent increase year-on-year. Trade with China was more than double Brazil's exchange with the United States, its second-largest partner, which totaled $83 billion over the same period.

Beyond goods, analysts say easier travel is expected to support growth in services and digital trade, areas where cooperation remains relatively limited. Tourism, finance, education and healthcare services could see expanded collaboration, often supported by digital technologies, Zhou said.

For Chinese companies operating on the ground, the impact is likely to be immediate. Sinovac Biotech, a leading Chinese vaccine company, expects the policy to facilitate the frequent in-person exchanges required for research, clinical trials and technology cooperation in Brazil.

"Visa-free travel will help Sinovac conduct technical discussions, innovative product development and local clinical cooperation in Brazil," said Meng Weining, vice-president of Sinovac, noting that many clinical trial projects rely heavily on close communication and on-site visits by research and medical personnel.

In November, Sinovac signed two product development partnership agreements with Brazil's health ministry, launching a 10-year collaboration worth more than $700 million. Under the agreements, Sinovac will supply around 60 million doses of varicella and rabies vaccines to Brazil over the next decade and work with local partners to strengthen local manufacturing capacity.

Meng cautioned, however, that visa convenience alone does not guarantee market expansion. "The key drivers for expanding product categories, such as influenza vaccines, are local disease prevention needs and market demand," he said, adding that regulatory compliance, taxation and policy uncertainty remain common challenges for cross-border operations.

Logistical constraints remain another limiting factor. Fitch Ratings said that while Brazil's possible visa exemption for Chinese citizens could provide a modest boost to passenger demand, it is unlikely to trigger a rapid expansion of non-stop routes on its own.

"This is an ultra-long-haul market with high operating costs and strong sensitivity to load factors and yields," said Zoey Wang, director of global infrastructure ratings at Fitch Ratings, adding that near-term adjustments are more likely to involve increased flight frequencies or restored capacity on existing routes, typically centered on Sao Paulo.

Beyond travel logistics, analysts note that trade policy barriers persist. Brazil's tariff levels remain relatively high, while customs procedures, quarantine standards and financial restrictions still leave room for improvement.

"Visa facilitation is not a cure-all," Zhou said. "But it is a clear signal — and an important step toward stronger bilateral cooperation."