Thailand awaits poll results amid prolonged political instability

Polls for Thailand's general election closed on Sunday after a smooth vote across the country. The members of parliament who succeed in the election will vote in April to determine the country's next prime minister and government for the next four years amid a prolonged period of political instability.

Sunday's voting began at 8 am local time with about 52.9 million eligible voters, and more than 126,000 police officers were deployed to safeguard 99,538 polling stations across the country, according to official statistics.

A total of 57 political parties have fielded candidates to contest this general election, while 43 parties have nominated 93 prime ministerial candidates. Major political parties running in this general election include Bhumjaithai, Pheu Thai, People's Party, Palang Pracharath, Democrat, Klatham, and United Thai Nation.

Under a mixed electoral system, voters cast two ballots: one for a constituency candidate and one for a party-list member of parliament or MP. There will be 400 MPs elected directly from constituencies on a winner-takes-all basis, while another 100 party-list seats are allocated proportionally based on nationwide votes.

All 500 MPs will vote to select the prime minister, with no Senate participation following the expiry of the transitional constitutional provision. A candidate must secure more than half of the House, or at least 251 votes.

In the country's capital city, Bangkok, the most valuable battleground with 33 MPs representing about 5.4 million residents, about 97,000 officials were deployed for the operations, said Bangkok permanent secretary Narong Ruangsri at a news conference on Sunday morning.

Narong said all six deputy permanent secretaries visited polling stations across the capital, covering more than 6,530 stations, to advise polling station committees and ensure orderly operations.

Based on the several rounds of polls before election day, it is widely believed that the result will be a three-way contest between the caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's Bhumjaithai Party, the progressive People's Party led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, and Pheu Thai backed by the Shinawatra family.

Under the leadership of 38-year-old Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the People's Party has garnered support from younger voters, proposing transformative plans for Thailand's political and economic frameworks. Key initiatives include loans for small businesses, establishing a national single-wage formula, and co-payment top-ups for millions of citizens, alongside labor skill development and investment in agricultural sustainability.

Conversely, Bhumjaithai's 58-year-old leader Anutin Charnvirakul has pursued policies emphasizing economic recovery, disaster response, and infrastructural developments, such as the construction of border walls amid heightened disputes with Cambodia.

Anutin has served as prime minister since September after former prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was removed from office. His administration prioritized stability, dissolving parliament in December to pave the way for this election.

Meanwhile, the Pheu Thai Party, led by Thaksin Shinawatra's nephew Yodchanan Wongsawat, focuses on revitalizing Thailand's economy through initiatives such as fostering startup growth and farmer profitability, as well as a novel lottery-style millionaire program.

"Thailand is now facing a significant concern for its declining attractiveness to international investors, with the country being labeled 'the forgotten man of Asia' as global fund managers show reduced interest and coverage," said Burin Adulwattana, chief economist of Thai Kasikorn Bank.

"So the urgent task for any new government is highlighted as the removal of economic distortions and the implementation of responsible policies that ensure the country's financial health and avoid the negative consequences of a downgrade," he said, noting that the new government won't survive long if it fails to realize its campaign promises.

Pongkwan Sawasdipakdi, a lecturer in international relations at the faculty of political science at Thammasat University, said major political parties have shifted their policy stances toward more conservative and nationalist approaches regarding border issues with Cambodia, reducing policy differentiation between parties.

"Thailand lacks a clear strategic position in the changing geopolitical landscape between major powers, risking reactive rather than proactive foreign policy," she said.

"What I am concerned about is that anti-Cambodian sentiment among Thai voters is expected to persist for 10 to 20 years, creating long-term obstacles for regional cooperation and ASEAN integration," she added.

Following Sunday's election, the Election Commission will certify at least 95 percent of MPs within 60 days of polling day or by April 9. Parliament must then convene within 15 days to elect its speaker, followed by a vote for prime minister.

The formation of the cabinet typically takes two to four weeks. If procedures and coalition talks proceed smoothly, the nation is expected to have a fully functioning new government by late May or June.

Apart from two ballots for both a constituency candidate and a party-list MP, voters this year are also provided with another ballot in a yellow form for the constitutional referendum to decide whether a new constitution should be created or not. No details of the proposed draft are given though.