Used home transactions show uptrend

China's four biggest cities are showing tentative signs of recovery in the pre-owned home market, pointing to a possible bottoming-out in these cities, but analysts still remain cautious about an overall rebound in the country's property sector.

January is traditionally a slow season for home transactions, but trading volumes for existing apartments in the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen and Guangzhou in Guangdong province, have shown signs of bouncing.

In Beijing, as many as 15,082 existing homes changed hands via online contracts in January, marking the third consecutive month that the transaction volume has remained above 14,000 units, according to data from the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.

"In the first 29 days of January, Beijing's secondhand home transactions jumped 15 percent month-on-month, evidence that the market is recovering," Gao Yuan, director of the Beijing Lianjia Research Institute, was quoted as saying by Economic Daily.

"Both demand and market activity are picking up, paving the way for a near-term recovery," Gao said.

Pre-owned home transactions in Shanghai also bucked the trend, with 20,300 apartments changing hands across the city, marking a 26.69 percent year-on-year increase, according to data collected by Centaline Shanghai.

"This is the third consecutive month that Shanghai's secondhand home transactions surpassed 20,000 units," said Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Centaline Shanghai.

"A seasonal shortage of new home supply, combined with the steady rollout of favorable homebuying policies, also helped buoy transaction volumes," Lu said.

In Guangzhou, a total of 8,881 existing homes, covering a combined gross floor area of 894,000 square meters, were sold online in January, up 1.07 percent and 2.05 percent month-on-month, respectively. The figures indicate resilient demand in the capital of Guangdong province, Chinese financial news outlet Yicai said in a report, citing sources from the Guangzhou Association of Real Estate Agents.

According to the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association, the southern metropolis recorded 6,802 existing home transactions in January, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.9 percent and a sharp 45.5 percent rise year-on-year. The annual growth marks the highest volume in nearly 10 months.

With monthly pre-owned home transaction volumes surpassing the 5,000-unit mark for 11 consecutive months, homebuyers' restored confidence is setting the stage for a market warm-up in spring, said the Yicai report.

"After a market consolidation of four and a half years, home prices in hot spot Chinese cities have become relatively favorable, with existing home prices entering into a point of bottoming out," said Li Yujia, a researcher on residential policy in Guangdong province.

"It is worth noting that market stabilization requires coordinated efforts from all parties involved. Continued reductions in transaction costs, the creation of a fair and orderly trading environment, and the restoration of homebuyer confidence will all be pivotal," Li said.

"In terms of prices, both Beijing and Shanghai saw month-on-month declines in existing home prices in January, according to our data tracking the major 100 cities across China," said Cao Jingjing, general manager of research at the China Index Academy.

"Currently, market performance is mixed, but all signs point to the fact that older apartments with poorer quality and more remote locations will remain under pressure," said Cao.

The real estate market is undergoing a transition from being dominated by new home sales to a landscape where pre-owned home transactions now take the lion's share. In the 30 key cities monitored by the China Index Academy, a total of 1.74 million existing homes changed hands, accounting for 65 percent of total housing transactions in those cities.

wang_ying@chinadaily.com.cn