GDP milestone lays solid foundation for blueprint rollout

China has cemented its position as the world's second-largest economy after the country's GDP expanded 5 percent year-on-year in 2025, surpassing the 140 trillion yuan ($20.4 trillion) threshold for the first time, a milestone that officials and economists said lays a solid foundation for a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period.

In 2026, the opening year of the new five-year plan, economists expect steady growth to continue, supported by policy measures tied to the plan, more efforts to boost domestic demand and the strengthening of new growth drivers.

Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said China's 5 percent growth rate puts the country among the top major economies in the world.

"China is estimated to have contributed around 30 percent to the world's economic expansion, continuing to act as the largest contributor to and a key stabilizing anchor for global growth. China remains the world's second-largest economy, accounting for roughly one-sixth of global output," Sheng said in a statement released on Saturday.

Sun Xuegong, head of the department of policy study and consultation at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said that 2026 will benefit from supportive conditions, including the release of the blueprint, which he said would "point the direction" for development over the next five years and help bolster expectations and confidence.

Despite lingering domestic and external challenges, Sun said he believes the economy will maintain stable growth this year.

On the supply side, he noted the rapid development of new quality productive forces and ongoing structural upgrading in traditional industries, as well as an accelerating services sector. On the demand side, he highlighted stronger policy support for consumption and a likely rebound in investment, particularly as major projects planned under the new five-year framework move into the implementation phase.

Exports, after experiencing significant turbulence in global trade, could see a period of relative stability, he added.

According to the annual statistical communique, released by the NBS on Saturday, final consumption expenditure last year contributed 2.6 percentage points to China's GDP growth, with gross capital formation and net exports of goods and services contributing 0.8 percentage point and 1.6 percentage points, respectively.

Marshall Mills, the International Monetary Fund's senior resident representative in China, said the IMF welcomes China's emphasis on boosting domestic demand and promoting consumption, a crucial link to unlocking China's growth potential in the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

"What we see is the future engine (for China) on the demand side would be private consumption. And it's a very large market where people are saving a lot. And that behavior can be changed, so there's a lot of potential there," Mills said.

Data from the annual statistical communique showed that China's expenditures on research and development rose 8.1 percent year-on-year to 3.93 trillion yuan in 2025, accounting for 2.8 percent of GDP.

Robert Koopman, former chief economist of the World Trade Organization, noted that China's shift toward an innovation-driven growth model has strengthened the resilience of the world's second-largest economy.

While acknowledging that sustaining growth becomes more challenging as economies approach the global technology frontier, Koopman said he remains optimistic that China can maintain growth of around 5 percent in the years ahead, driven by continued advances in R&D, innovation and technological change.