'Robust start' on track for 15th Five-Year Plan

China is poised for a strong start to its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period, with a wave of policy measures set to translate into fresh growth momentum this year, according to a leading expert.

Pan Jiaofeng, president of the Institutes of Science and Development at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, expressed confidence that the world's second-largest economy will consolidate its structural transition and unlock new engines of high-quality development over the next five years.

"As the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, 2026 will be a pivotal period for implementing a raft of major policy measures," Pan said in a recent exclusive interview with China Daily. "These policies will be introduced in quick succession and translated into tangible development results."

Pan, who also serves as a deputy to the National People's Congress, said policy priorities are already clear, including expanding domestic demand, deepening international cooperation and accelerating the formation of new growth drivers cultivated in recent years. With these advantages in place, he said, China is well-positioned to deliver a "robust start" to the new five-year plan period.

Despite a complex global environment and ongoing domestic restructuring, China delivered a "very strong report card" in 2025, with GDP expanding 5 percent year-on-year and surpassing 140 trillion yuan ($20.3 trillion) for the first time.

Pan said last year's performance laid a solid foundation for achieving the goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035. The next five years, he said, will mark a phase of comprehensive efforts to build a modern socialist country and entrench high-quality development.

"China's long-term fundamentals remain intact," he said. "While the country ranks second globally in total GDP, its per capita GDP still lags advanced economies, implying significant room for further expansion. At the same time, China has cultivated a vast domestic market with substantial consumption potential, which will be further unleashed during the 15th Five-Year Plan period."

From an industrial perspective, Pan said traditional sectors are moving up the value chain, while industrial upgrading and the rise of emerging industries have given China significant global advantages.

"For example, we've seen the booming development of the 'new trio' — electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic products," he said. "In the coming five years, a new 'new trio' is also expected to emerge."

His views were echoed by Sun Xuegong, director-general of the department of policy study and consultation at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, who said China is undergoing an upgrade in both its industrial base and demand patterns.

According to the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, China will take coordinated steps to expand domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reform, accelerate the cultivation of new growth drivers, and improve and upgrade its economic structure.

Pan said a key priority is to fully leverage science and technology to upgrade what he describes as "foundational industries". Rather than viewing traditional sectors as outdated, he believes they remain the backbone of the economy and can be revitalized through deeper integration with digital technologies and artificial intelligence.

AI applications are expected to reshape production processes, organizational models and management systems, significantly improving product quality and efficiency, he said.

Meanwhile, strategic emerging industries, which now account for more than 15 percent of China's economic output after more than a decade of development, should be further cultivated into new pillar industries with global competitiveness, he said. Within that framework, areas such as autonomous driving, humanoid robotics and AI-integrated intelligent equipment hold particular promise.

He also called for forward-looking arrangements in future industries shaped by disruptive technologies.

"With a comprehensive industrial system and strong supply-chain capabilities, China is well-placed to seize emerging opportunities and pioneer new development frontiers," Pan said.

Contact the writers at ouyangshijia@chinadaily.com.cn