'26 GDP growth target 'achievable' on fundamentals

China's 2026 economic growth target of between 4.5 percent and 5 percent is "necessary, reasonable and achievable", supported by solid fundamentals, emerging growth drivers and policy support aimed at boosting domestic demand, said a renowned expert.

The target aligns with the country's medium and long-term development goals while leaving room for structural reforms and higher-quality growth, said Sun Xuegong, director-general of the department of policy study and consultation at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research.

"I think the growth target is very reasonable and necessary, and it is fully achievable," Sun said.

To double per capita GDP from 2020 levels by 2035 to achieve the country's goal of basically realizing socialist modernization, Sun said the economy would need to grow by around 4.2 percent annually in the coming years, making this year's target necessary.

Despite domestic and external challenges, Sun said China still has favorable conditions supporting steady growth this year, particularly as the draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for national economic and social development "points the direction" for development over the next five years and helps bolster expectations and confidence.

On the supply side, Sun said the rapid development of new quality productive forces will increasingly support economic expansion. At the same time, traditional industries are undergoing structural adjustment, while China's services sector is entering a phase of faster expansion, which could play a larger role in driving growth in the coming years.

From the demand side, Sun said he expects to see a steady growth in consumption, as consumption remains a key focus of macroeconomic policy this year, with authorities expected to continue implementing measures aimed at boosting household spending. And investment could also rebound as project pipelines for the start of the new five-year plan period are well prepared, Sun said.

Meanwhile, policy measures aimed at encouraging private-sector investment could also help stabilize and revive investment growth, he added.

Exports, which faced significant turbulence last year, may benefit from a period of relative stabilization in the international economic environment, providing support for growth this year. Taken together, these supply and demand-side factors provide a solid foundation for China to achieve its growth target, Sun said.

If China maintains stable economic expansion this year, the country could continue contributing roughly 30 percent of global economic growth. "That means China will continue to serve as a stabilizing anchor for world economic expansion," he said.

During a recent news conference held in Beijing, Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that China has a solid foundation to achieve its GDP growth target in 2026, underpinned by the country's vast economic scale, growing innovation capabilities and institutional strengths in managing risks.

To achieve the goals and make a strong start to the 15th Five-Year Plan period, Zheng said strengthening the domestic market will be among the top priorities, with policies aimed at boosting both consumption and investment.

With consumption remaining central to China's economic strategy, Sun said boosting spending will require comprehensive policy measures rather than relying on a single initiative.

He said that different income groups face different constraints. For lower-income households, income growth remains a key factor affecting consumption, particularly as structural adjustments in some industries may limit income gains.

For other groups, the challenge lies more in consumer confidence and spending willingness amid global uncertainties and domestic economic adjustments, Sun added.

Official data reflect this gap. China's per capita disposable income grew 5 percent year-on-year last year, while per capita consumption expenditure rose 4.4 percent.

To address these issues, Sun said policymakers should focus on maintaining stable growth and supporting sectors that generate employment and income, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as micro businesses. Increasing property income, which is currently growing relatively slowly, could also provide additional room for household income growth, he said.

Sun also called for reforms to strengthen social security systems and remove restrictions in consumption-related sectors to improve consumer confidence. On the supply side, he emphasized the need to expand the offering of high-quality goods and services, especially as demand for new and services-oriented consumption continues to rise.

Liu Yang and Lyu Jinkai contributed to this story.

Contact the writers at ouyangshijia@chinadaily.com.cn