Middle East war reverberates in Europe

"Stop bombing Iran!" "Stop arming Israel!" "Stop the War!" Thousands of anti-war protesters marched through central London on Saturday, a week after the United States and Israel started a war on Iran with airstrikes that killed Iranian leaders as well as hundreds of civilians.

Drums, chants, and flags filled the street as demonstrators rallied in front of the US Embassy in the United Kingdom at Nine Elms Lane, where Lindsey German, convener of the Stop the War coalition, spoke on the stage: "This war is spreading, and we will pay the price!

"We will pay the price in terms of weapons. We will pay the price because of the energy crisis, and we will pay the human cost because terrorism will grow as a result of these attacks ...

"Our message to (UK Prime Minister) Keir Starmer is very clear: Stop appeasing (US President) Donald Trump all the way to World War III … Stop letting British bases be used for America's deadly, illegal attacks!"

Similar rallies were also held in several cities across Europe, including in Madrid, Paris, and Milan, over the weekend, reflecting a growing anti-war public sentiment, which has also been fueled by recent US military action against Venezuela and the threat to annex the Arctic island of Greenland.

Experts have urged Europe to pursue diplomacy to halt a spiraling conflict that is significantly undermining European security and economic interests, while countries' different relations with the US complicate their responses.

Last week, Spain's denial of the US to use its military bases triggered a direct trade embargo threat from the US president. However, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez didn't back down, reiterating that the position of his government can be summed up as "No to war".

In a speech on national television, Sanchez reminded the public about the result of Spain's involvement in the US-led invasion in Iraq in 2003.

"The world, Europe and Spain have been here before. Twenty-three years ago, another US administration dragged us into a war in the Middle East," he said. "The war in Iraq provoked a drastic increase in jihadist terrorism, a severe migration crisis in the eastern Mediterranean, and a widespread increase in energy, thus impacting the cost of the shopping basket and the cost of living."

But not all European leaders were as outspoken as Sanchez. While some European leaders have expressed concerns over the legality of the US-Israel attacks and the widening war in the Middle East, they have struggled to respond with a united front.

UK Prime Minister Starmer has said his government made a "deliberate" decision not to be involved in the initial strikes on Iran by the US and Israel and described the action "unlawful", adding that the use of British bases is limited to "defensive" purposes.

France's President Emmanuel Macron stated that US-Israel military operations in Iran were conducted "outside international law".

Koert Debeuf, distinguished adjunct professor in Middle East studies at the Brussels School of Governance, said: "European countries were quite shocked by what the US did — they were not even informed beforehand. But at the same time, they have not reacted very loudly. So I think they are shocked by this development, and they don't really know yet how to respond."

"You can see that they are hesitant to openly criticize the US. We see indirect reactions from leaders such as Germany's Chancellor (Friedrich Merz) and (President of the European Commission) Ursula von der Leyen. They are blaming Iran for the escalation, but they are not directly criticizing the American action," said Debeuf.

Ondrej Dostal, a Czech member of the European Parliament, sharply criticized the reaction of senior European Union officials, including von der Leyen, Vice-President of the European Commission Kaja Kallas, and President of the European Council Antonio Costa.

"I am deeply shocked by the response of parts of the EU leadership," Dostal said. "Instead of clearly condemning the initial attack, they have inverted the roles of victim and aggressor and rushed to criticize Iran.

"This war will hurt all of us. Many people are already struggling with the rising cost of living, and higher gas and oil prices will only make daily life more difficult," he added.

Oil prices surge

In retaliation for the unprovoked airstrike, Iran has since launched missile and drone attacks against Israel and US military bases in the Gulf region, and blocked vessels belonging to the US, Israel, and European countries from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The near-standstill of maritime freight transport in one of the world's most strategically important energy corridors has now lasted a week.

Around 20 percent of the global oil supply and roughly one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas trade pass through the strait.

Energy markets reacted immediately to the shock. Crude oil reached almost $120 a barrel on Monday over fears that the war would cause prolonged disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East. Prices later dived to below $90 following Trump's comments, saying that the war in Iran is "very complete, pretty much". However, on Wednesday, crude oil jumped 4 percent as traders priced in supply disruption.

For Europe, the strait matters, as the continent's reliance on Gulf energy flows has grown considerably since it sharply reduced imports of Russian fossil fuels after 2022.

European natural gas futures on Monday jumped more than 14 percent to over 61 euros ($71) per megawatt-hour, hitting three-year highs, and extending last week's 67 percent surge, Euronews reported. Europe's gas reserves remain low, with EU storage levels below 30 percent and need refilling.

"It shows that European energy supply is more vulnerable to such geopolitical shocks than estimated due to its high dependence on imported fossil fuels … Peace is valuable to every nation of the world. For Europe, it's especially valuable because it saves not only lives, but also daily energy costs," said Qin Yan, a principal analyst at Norway-based ClearBlue Markets.

The war feels much closer when it spills over into everyday life. Motorists across the continent are already feeling it at the pump.

According to the General German Automobile Club, petrol grade Super E10 averaged 1.84 euros per liter on March 2, up 6.1 cents from Feb 27 and the highest level since May 2024. Diesel prices also climbed by 7 cents over the same period, their highest since October 2023.

The situation is somewhat better in Belgium, where a maximum petroleum price system helps prevent sharp increases. Even so, fears of rising fuel costs have prompted many motorists to fill up before prices climb further, leading to long queues at gas stations.

Flights could also become more expensive.

According to the BBC, the Gulf region supplies around half of Europe's jet fuel, and the disruption has caused the continent's benchmark jet fuel price to almost double, reaching heights not seen in recent years. Fuel typically makes up 20 to 40 percent of airlines' operating costs.

Many European airlines secure fuel through contracts that lock in fixed or capped prices months, or even years, in advance. By contrast, a number of large US carriers do not.

But President Trump said on Truth Social, "Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for USA and World, Safety and Peace", and "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY."

How long the turmoil will last remains to be seen. Yet for Europeans, reassurance is scarce. The "ghosts of the 2022 energy crisis" still loom large as they brace for another shock beyond their control. As Politico wrote in its analysis, "it's all starting to feel very 2022".

Looming refugee crisis

The European Union Agency for Asylum warned on March 3 that conflict in Iran could trigger a refugee influx of "unprecedented magnitude", overwhelming EU borders and asylum systems.

In a report prepared before recent United States and Israeli strikes, it said displacement of just 10 percent of Iran's roughly 90 million people "would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades".

Since strikes began on Feb 28, the crisis has intensified with further attacks on Tehran and Lebanon. Iranian displacement remains limited, but the agency warned continued fighting could lead to a "significant" escalation.

"We do not want to experience a Syrian scenario here," Merz said at a meeting of German industrial lobby groups in Munich last Friday. He appealed instead to leaders in Washington and Israel "to create the conditions as soon as possible for this country to be stabilized".

Tasha Kheiriddin, a Canadian political columnist, wrote for GZERO Media that the world is a very different place than it was in 2015, when the last exodus to Europe peaked, as governments that initially embraced refugees, including Germany and Sweden, have sharply reversed course in the decade since, adopting far more restrictive policies amid rising anti-immigration sentiment at home.

"We cannot have what we had 10 years ago, we cannot have another refugee crisis," Sweden's Minister for Migration, Johan Forssell, said last Thursday following a gathering of EU interior ministers in Brussels.

Who will take in people forced to flee becomes a prominent question.

The global displacement crisis is already at historic levels. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 123 million people worldwide had been forcibly displaced by the end of 2024 due to conflict, persecution and disasters — the highest number ever recorded — and the trend shows no sign of slowing.

The US is taking a similar "closed-door approach", Kheiriddin noted. The US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told a press conference last week that there were no plans to admit refugees and suggested a number of countries in the Middle East "would be capable" of sheltering displaced people "if need be".

Conflicting interests

In addition to the surge of energy costs and possible refugee crisis, Jian Junbo, a researcher with the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, pointed out that the US-Israel attack on Iran threatens European interests in the Middle East, as many European countries have significant investments in the region, along with large numbers of citizens living and working there.

"Any escalation could therefore put both economic assets and the safety of European nationals at risk," he said, adding that the crisis also exposes divisions within Europe, as European countries have taken different positions on both Iran and US actions.

Within two days of the beginning of the war, more than 100,000 British nationals had registered concerns with consular authorities in the Middle East, while Ireland's foreign ministry estimated some 20,000 of its nationals were stuck in the conflict zone.

According to Euractiv, ten EU countries, including Italy, France, and Belgium, have activated the EU Civil Protection Mechanism which provides logistical support, expertise and EU co-financing for evacuation flights.

Both the UK and France have been moving their warships to the conflict region to protect their citizens, assets, and partners.

However, Song Luzheng, a France-based scholar and commentator, pointed out that the latest US-Israeli military action against Iran has only received limited support from European allies.

"Europe has offered little backing for Washington, either diplomatically or operationally, which has clearly frustrated the US," said Song.

"For many Europeans, Iran itself is not the primary threat; rather, it is the United States under Donald Trump. Although Europe also opposes Iran, Washington's approach is widely seen as a serious disruption to the international order. This has become a major source of tension between Europe and the US," he added.

After the use of force against Venezuela and the threat to annex Greenland, the latest attack on Iran has severely shaken US credibility as a reliable ally for European countries, and pushed Europe to be a more autonomous geopolitical actor.

"However, in the short term, European governments have little incentive to escalate tensions with Washington over a war they neither initiated nor control … For now, Europe's strategy is likely to remain one of cautious distance: avoiding direct involvement in the conflict while focusing on the priorities that matter most to the continent itself," wrote Matthias Matthijs, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, a US think tank.

"That may not make for a particularly inspiring display of strategic leadership. But from the perspective of European policymakers, it may also be the most realistic option available at the moment," he said.

Contact the writers at xingyi@chinadaily.com.cn