Foreign exchange rate
(Wordnet Dictionary)Updated: 2006-10-17 14:32 Fluctuations in exchange rates
A market based exchange rate will change whenever the value of either of the two component currencies change. A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply (this does not mean people no longer want money, it just means they prefer holding their wealth in some other form, possibly another currency).
Increased demand for a currency is due to either an increased transaction demand for money, or an increased speculative demand for money. The transaction demand for money is highly correlated to the country's level of business activity, gross domestic product (GDP), and employment levels. The more people there are out of work, the less the public as a whole will spend on goods and services. Central banks typically have little difficulty adjusting the available money supply to accommodate changes in the demand for money due to business transactions.
The speculative demand for money is much harder for a central bank to accommodate but they try to do this by adjusting interest rates. An investor may choose to buy a currency if the return (that is the interest rate) is high enough. The higher a country's interest rates, the greater the demand for that currency.
In choosing what type of asset to hold, people are also concerned that the asset will retain its value in the future. Most people will not be interested in a currency if they think it will devalue. A currency will tend to lose value, relative to other currencies, if the country's level of inflation is relatively higher, if the country's level of output is expected to decline, or if a country is troubled by political uncertainty. For example, when Russian President Vladimir Putin dismissed his Government on February 24, 2004, the price of the Ruble dropped. When China announced plans for its first manned space mission the price of the Yuan jumped.
Like the stock exchange, money can be made or lost on the foreign exchange market by investors and speculators buying and selling at the right times. Currencies can be traded at spot and foreign exchange options markets. The spot market represents current exchange rates, where options are derivatives of exchange rates.
Foreign exchange markets
The foreign exchange
markets are usually highly liquid as the main international banks continually
provide the market with both bid (buy) and ask (sell) offers. The volume of
trading in the foreign exchange markets exceeds that in any other market,
liquidity is extremely high.
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