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UN: Global recession may drag China's GDP to 7% in 2009

By Fu Jing (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-01-16 09:34

China's economic growth may fall to 7 percent in pessimistic scenario that the US and Europe continue slow actions in fighting against deepening financial crisis, UN has warned today in a report.

It also forecasted that the economy can still maintain a high rate of 8.9 percent if the international community adopts united efforts as soon as possible, the UN said in its regional analysis of its annual economic report, released today in Beijing.

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The writing team of UN's World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009 said Chinese authorities face a major challenge in stimulating their economy to invigorate domestic consumption, in the face of a severe drop-off in demand for Chinese exports.

The report projects a continuing deceleration of economic activity in East Asia, with the region's 2009 growth of gross domestic product (GDP) expected to drop to 6.0 percent, down from 6.9 percent in 2008 and 9.0 percent in 2007. The weakened trade with Europe and the United States will curtail growth in most economies in Asia led by China.

But it said China remains the region's locomotive for economic growth, as well as an engine for global growth UN economists say. China contributed about 22 percent of the global growth in 2008, and will likely contribute more in 2009, as most developed economies are falling into a recession.