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Economist: Export plunge may offset 4t yuan stimulus package

By Wang Bo and Zhang Haizhou (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-03-30 10:08

Lackluster external demand and mounting protectionist sentiments will drag down China's export significantly this year – and could even offset the effect of China's 4 trillion yuan stimulus package, a senior economist said on Saturday.

Related readings:  China faces 'grim' export situation: commerce minister  China's exports slump, investment rises  China stimulus fine for now, exports to suffer further  Wen urges efforts to promote export

Zhang Yansheng, head of the international economic research institute under the National Development and Reform Commission, told the Globe Forum sponsored by Globe magazine, that China's trade surplus was likely to undergo major adjustments in 2009. He expects the surplus to shrink to about $200 billion this year, compared to $295.5 billion in 2008.

China's foreign trade may drop 8 percent year-on-year in 2009, while exports could plunge 10 percent, according to Zhang’s estimates.

The nation's exports have fallen four consecutive months since last November. In February, China's exports declined to $64.9 billion, down by 25.7 percent year-on-year and by 28 percent from January. Foreign trade slid 24.9 percent from a year earlier to reach $124.95 billion.