IMF trims world growth forecast to 3.4% in 2014

WASHINGTON -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday lowered its global economic growth forecast to 3. 4 percent this year, and expected the global growth could be weaker for longer due to weakness in advanced and emerging markets.

In its updated World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF de-rated the global growth by 0.3 percentage point from its April estimate. The global lender applied new 2011 purchasing power parity benchmarks to calculate and compare the forecasts in April and July. As a result, its April forecast was lifted by 0.1 percentage point to 3.7 percent.

The downgrade reflected the legacy of the weak first quarter, particularly in the United States, and a less optimistic outlook for several emerging markets, the IMF said.

"The recovery continues, but it remains a weak recovery, indeed a bit weaker than we forecast in April," said Olivier Blanchard, economic counselor of IMF.

The report noted global growth could be weaker for longer, given the lack of robust momentum in advanced economies and the negative growth effects in emerging economies.

Growth forecast of advanced economies was lowered to 1.8 percent for 2014, down 0.4 percentage point from its last estimate. US economy is expected to decelerate to 1.7 percent due to the weak performance in the first quarter.

Emerging markets are expected to grow 4.6 percent this year, down 0.2 percentage point from the previous estimate. China's economy is expected to slow to 7.4 percent in 2014.

The report said downside risks remain a concern, as increased geopolitical risks could lead to sharply higher oil prices. Financial market risks include higher-than-expected US long-term rates and a reversal of recent risk spread and volatility compression.

The weaker global growth expected for the first half of this year underscores that raising actual and potential growth must remain a priority in most economies.

In many advanced and emerging market economies, IMF suggested, structural reforms are urgently needed to close infrastructure gaps, strengthen productivity, and lift potential growth.

The IMF publishes the bi-annual WEO report in April and October and updates it in January and July.

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