The Chinese mainland asset management industry may grow 25 percent on average annually to hit US$1.4 trillion by 2016, becoming the world's fastest expanding market, McKinsey & Co Inc said yesterday.

The market scale by then will likely generate US$2 billion to US$3 billion in annual profits for money managers, the consulting company said in a report.

The growth of the current US$156 billion asset management sector will be sparked by consumers shifting savings from bank accounts into higher-yielding investments such as mutual funds, McKinsey said.

The development will also benefit from an increasingly favorable regulatory environment and the rapid growth of China's capital markets, according to the consulting firm.

"Asset managers hoping to win in this highly competitive market must balance risks and growth, build brand awareness and create a sustainable source of competitive differentiation," said Wang Yi, a principal at McKinsey in Shanghai.

Assets under management on the mainland equaled nearly eight percent of the nation's economy in 2005, against 214 percent in the US market, the report said.

Seventy-nine percent of personal financial assets on the mainland were in deposits and cash last year, a ratio that will gradually decline to 60 percent by 2016, McKinsey said.

Meanwhile, pensions, mutual funds, life insurance as well as stocks and bonds will see their combined proportion jump to 40 percent by 2016 from 21 percent in 2006, according to the report.

However, the growth of the sector will face "emerging-market" challenges including stock volatility and immature investor behavior, the report said.

Mainland mutual-fund managers also lack strong and direct distribution channels as 54 percent of fund sales last year was conducted via bank branches, McKinsey said.

"Asset managers should focus less on short-term performance and asset-under-management rankings," said Joseph Ngai, an associate principal in McKinsey's Hong Kong office.

They should "devote more attention to building a sustainable franchise, which will require significant investments in developing distribution channels, educating customers and grooming talent," Ngai said.

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