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          Timing for index futures still a mystery

          By Dong Zhixin (chinadaily.com.cn)
          Updated: 2007-04-13 16:52
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          "There is a consensus that the stock index futures could not be introduced in the first half of the year. Then it is highly likely that it will be launched in the fourth quarter," said Fang in an online interview on Monday.

          Political factors should be taken into consideration when investing in stocks in China, noted Fang, referring to the 17th Congress of the Communist Party of China scheduled to convene in the autumn.

          "The governmental departments that decide the launch of the stock index futures are sure to calculate whether it will bring the equity market dramatic volatility which is out of line with the atmosphere of a harmonious society," said he.

          "Then why not get better prepared by letting more big caps and quality stocks join the market, making the index futures more difficult to manipulate," said Fang.

          Shanghai Financial News also pointed to the technical problems. "Technical immaturity is a key reason for the late coming of the stock index futures," the newspaper said Thursday, citing insiders.

          "Technical problems do exist, not in the exchange, but in the systems of the members," a technician of the China Financial Futures Exchange was quoted as saying.

          The jam of orders is common occurrence in the simulative trading, said an employee of a futures company. But not all companies have encountered such a problem.

          The China Financial Futures Exchange has demanded the futures companies to get technically prepared before the end of this month.

          It will not wait for every member to get prepared before launching the new product. Instead it will follow the principle of "letting the members that get ready first trade first".

          The preparations for the launch of the stock index futures are going smoothly, with the legal framework being improved, the Shanghai Securities Times Monday quoted Jiang Yang, assistant chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, as saying.

          China Securities Regulatory Commission is the Chinese equivalent of Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) in the US.

          The China Financial Future Exchange has basically completed the product design, rules setting and technical preparations for the stock index futures, added Jiang.

          Market watchers believe the introduction of such a derivative will provide financial institutions with a much-needed tool to hedge risks but may also spur speculation and widen volatility.

          The target index for China's first stock index futures is Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index which have gained 55.63 percent this year.

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