By Hao Zhou (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2007-08-10 16:09

The composite index of China's industrialization level would reach 100 by 2021, at which point the nation will have realized complete industrialization, according to China's first Blue Paper for Industrialization unveiled by the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS) yesterday.

The composite index includes five main indicators, including the gross domestic product per capita, the gross product ratio among the agriculture, industry, and service industries, the proportion of manufactured goods of all total consumer goods, the population urbanization rate, as well as the employment rate in the agriculture, industrial, and service industries.

Based on a couple years of research on China's industrialization processes, the national social science academy concluded that the country has entered the later half of the intermediate industrialization phase.

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The blue paper suggested that the proportion of agriculture as of 2005 has dropped to 12.6 percent of the national economy in terms of gross product. That figure is down from 27.9 percent in 1978, with the initiation of economic reforms. The employment rate in agriculture also declined to 44.8 percent in 2005 from 70.5 percent in 1978.

Meanwhile, the proportion of service industry production climbed to 39.9 percent in 2005 from 24.2 percent in 1978, and the employment rate there rose to 31.4 percent in 2005 from 12.2 percent about three decade ago.

The researching panel of the academy separated the industrialization processes into initial, medium, and final phases.

According to the academy's assessment, the comprehensive index of China's industrialization level was 18 in 1995 and 26 in 2000, indicating that the nation was sitting at the latter half of the initial phase of industrialization during its ninth “Five-Year Plan.”

The index saw an annual rise of four to five percent during the next five years and topped 50 by the end of 2005, meaning China's industrialization had entered into an intermediate stage.

If such a momentum remains, the blue paper predicted, with another decade of development, the comprehensive index will reach 100, or complete industrialization, by 2010.

Industrialization, however, is not equally balanced throughout the country. By 2005, the industrialization index had reached 78 in East China, 45 in Northeast China, 30 in Central China, and 25 in West China. Looking at the economic zones, the Yangzi River Delta scored 85, the Pearl River Delta 80, and the industrial zones around the Bohai Sea 70, all in the final industrialization stage.