By Tu Lei (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2007-09-20 17:24

The cut in the United States' interest rates would not stop China's interest rate hike if the country's inflation does not ease, said an expert from Morgan Stanley, reported today's the Shanghai Securities News.

Wang Qing, chief economist for Greater China of Morgan Stanley, said the US Federal Reserve slashed benchmark interest rates by a half-percentage point on September 18, an indication that rates in the US will continue to drop.

However, Wang said China will increase interest rates, regardless of cuts in the US.

Morgan Stanley predicted the People's Bank of China will raise interest rates at least once before the end of this year, and the exchange rate between US dollar and yuan will drop to 7.30 by year end.

And it also predicted the US Federal Reserve will cut the interest rates by 100 basis points totally by the middle of 2008, meaning the interest rate gap between US dollar and yuan will be narrowed, and yuan will suffer more appreciation pressures.

It seems that since the second half of last year, the monetary policy in China has shifted to control on asset prices and inflation hikes from guiding yuan's appreciation through interest rates, said Wang.

The interest rate gap between the US dollar and yuan has narrowed to 200 basis points from 300, added Wang.

Figures from the China Foreign Exchange Trading System today show that the central parity of yuan against the US dollar is 7.5175.