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Serious US recession my lead to China's growth capped by 8%

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-10-23 16:37

China's economic growth would be about 9 percent if the United States recession is mild, whereas a more serious US recession could lead to the Chinese economic growth capped by about 8 percent, said Glenn Hubbard, dean of the Columbia Business School and a former advisor to US President George W. Bush.

Speaking at a media briefing in Hong Kong on Wednesday, Hubbard said he expected the United States to record sub-par growths, or growths below 3 percent, in the fourth quarter this year and the first quarter of next year, and recovery was likely to gradually start in the second quarter of 2009.

The Asian economies, especially the Chinese economy, will be negatively affected in a U.S. recession environment because they relied heavily on export growth, he said.

"When I was here last winter, the fashionable discussions had all been the decoupling of the Asian economies from the United States, and that nothing happens in the United States is relevant for Asia. Of course, it was never, and is not, true," said Hubbard, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisors under Bush in 2001- 2003.

Hubbard said China needs to rely more on domestic consumption in order for China to sustain a healthier economic growth.

The economics professor said he was optimistic towards the longer-term prospect of the Hong Kong economy, thanks to the city' s role as a trade and financial center.

He also pointed out that "what happens in this part of the world very much affects the United States," giving rise to the need for the next US President to think about how to repair economic relationships with other countries.

Hubbard said the United States needs to understand that all economies are all inter-connected and there should be some form of economic level playing field.