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Metal futures cool down after price rebound

By Wang Lan (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-01-16 07:45

The latest spurt in the prices of key metals in the Shanghai commodity futures market has many traders and users wondering if prices that went on a free fall in the past several months have touched bottom.

Not so fast, say the leading analysts and economists interviewed by China Daily. Their reservation, they said, was based on spot price projections that were influenced by supply and demand estimates, producers' inventory levels and established industry practice.

The surge in prices of futures contracts for copper and aluminum in Shanghai in the past week was a "technical" correction from the precipitous fall earlier, the analysts said.

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Major contracts in different futures on the Shanghai market Thursday saw different price drops, after short-term price corrections over the past two weeks.

The most actively traded copper futures contract for April delivery on Shanghai Futures Exchange Thursday fell by 4.1 percent to 26,390 yuan per ton, while the most actively traded aluminum contract for the same month delivery sunk 1 percent to 11,840 yuan per ton.

Before Thursday's drop, copper futures have increased by an aggregate 11.6 percent over the past two weeks, which exceeded the price increase in the international market.

Although the 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan is expected to help boost some demand in raw materials, it will take time for the full impact to be felt in the market, analysts said.

Analysts said the announced reduction in output by the major metal smelters was not drastic enough to help turn around the supply glut in the short term.

Major copper smelters including Jiangxi Copper, Yunnan Copper and Tongling Nonferrous Metals have recently announced a 20 percent production cut to stabilize prices battered by dwindling demand.

"The market is not expected to reach a supply and demand equilibrium until domestic consumption begins to pick up and the inventory is sufficiently run down," said Cai Luoyi, a senior analyst at China International Futures (Shanghai) Co.

But analysts expected no immediate inventory drop in the near term, as the major downstream consumers of metals, including property developers and carmakers, struggle with declining sales.

The recent government purchases of nonferrous metals for strategic reserves have also helped stem the price drop and partly slowed down the pace of the production cut by smelters to combat the dropping prices.

Although declining exports and domestic consumption would further weigh down commodity prices, China is expected to become the major force in leading the market recovery in commodities, analysts said.