October exports up but govt remains cautious

China's overseas shipment for October beat market expectations with accelerated growth, but the authorities warned of "much grim and severe" prospects for the nation's exports.

The severe situation in foreign trade, which has long been a pillar of the nation's economy, is pressurizing China to enhance efforts to stimulate domestic consumption to sustain its economic growth, said the Minister of Commerce Chen Deming on the sidelines of the ongoing 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.

Minister of Commerce Chen Deming takes questions at a news conference during the ongoing 18th Party Congress in Beijing on Saturday. [Photo by Zou Hong/China Daily]

China's exports in October surged by 11.6 percent from a year earlier, stronger than the 9.9 percent year-on-year increase registered in September, the General Administration of Customs figures showed.

The figure was also the strongest since May.

October's imports rose at almost the same pace as September, at 2.4 percent year-on-year. Despite the quickening of the nation's exports, China's foreign trade situation "is still much severe, and we dare not say that the coming year will be sanguine," said Chen.

He attributed the "coldness" to "the slackened global demand, rising costs in labor and raw materials, and growing trade protectionism".

The US International Trade Commission recently ruled that China's cheap solar panel makers hurt their American counterparts, voting in favor of duties ranging from 23.75 percent to about 250 percent.

Chen said the US decision hurt both countries, and urged the US to reduce trade investigations into Chinese exports.

The minister also warned earlier this week that it will be "very difficult" for China to hit the target of growing total trade by 10 percent in 2012 as set by Premier Wen Jiabao early this year.

But Chen pointed out that China can sustain the share of foreign trade in the global market this year.

China's exports had been on the decline since late last year before the figure accelerated in recent few months.

"Together with a series of other statistics released very recently, the quickened growth in exports send the signal that the Chinese economy is stabilizing," said Zhuang Jian, economist with Asia Development Bank.

China's economic expansion slowed to 7.4 percent in the third quarter, the lowest since early 2009, but industrial production, fixed-asset investment and retail sales grew in October.

Premier Wen had set a target of 7.5 percent growth target for this year.

Emerging markets have led the growth for China's exports. Sales to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations gained by 16.6 percent in the first nine months and exports to Russia alone surged by 14.5 percent.

"We are glad to see that China is expanding its share in the emerging markets, optimizing the structure of its exports and adding values to the goods for exports," said Wang Shouwen, director of foreign trade department with the Ministry of Commerce, on the sidelines of a tech show being held in Guangzhou.

But economists are still worried if the export growth momentum will sustain until the beginning of 2013.

"The October export growth recovery is mainly driven by the delivery of orders for the Christmas season and rising shipment to emerging markets," said Zhuang.

Wang Jun, an economist at China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said:

"I remain cautious about China's exports outlook in the coming months, as demand from the United States has not fully recovered, and the situation in the European countries is even worse."

While the exports outlook remains grim, "expanding domestic consumption is a right choice for China to help maintain economic growth", said Chen.

President Hu Jintao said in his report to the 18th Party Congress that China must seek a transformation of its economic growth model, during which stimulating domestic consumption is a key.

China will be committed to expanding consumption in six areas.

These include consumption related to safety, the green sector, service, online, and the import of goods, especially luxury goods, Chen said.

During the first three quarters of this year, China's consumption gained by 11.6 percent year-on-year, making it the largest contributor to China's GDP growth, he said.

Even so, economists warned that the Chinese government cannot ignore the significance of stabilizing exports.

"We have to pursue stable exports growth firmly and unwaveringly.

"Otherwise, it would be hard for China to maintain moderate economic expansion," said Wang Jun.

Contact the writers at dingqingfen@chinadaily.com.cn and lijiabao@chinadaily.com.cn