Prepare for exit-QE shockwaves

But the feast ended when former US Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker adopted a tight monetary policy in 1979, and the resulting high interest rates prompted former German chancellor Helmut Schmidt to remark that they were the "highest interest rates since Jesus Christ". The US' annual interest rate rose from 6.8 percent in 1976 to 18.9 percent in 1981, while the LIBOR increased from 6 to 14.3 percent during the same period.

The result: in 1982, Mexico found itself incapable of repaying foreign debt. And heavily indebted developing economies like Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela "lost ten years" of development, triggering a global debt crisis. Poland had already seen the founding of the Solidarity labor union in 1980, which led to a change in regime not only in Warsaw, but the entire Eastern Bloc.

Many emerging economies today have accumulated enough debt and face enough risk to derail their economic and social development, and even threaten their stability. During the rest of this year, some emerging economies could witness social unrest because of economic difficulties and probably fall into the same trap that dragged communist countries from prosperity to debt in the 1980s.

Changes in monetary policies of the US and other strong Western economies, together with falling prices of primary products, may cause the hidden dangers to surface. If the US tapers off the QE policy within this year, the reverse capital flow could deal a deadly blow to China and emerging economies.

From the crisis of the 1980s to the 1994 Mexican financial crisis, we have seen how developed countries' tight monetary policies produce disastrous results in developing countries. The financial shockwaves for the past two months suggest that a similar crisis could be repeated.

In the 1980s, China was lucky enough to narrowly escape the debt crisis. Today, when emerging economies account for almost half of its trade volume and account for huge capital flows into the country, China has the potential to escape another financial crisis.

But let us not forget the famous remark of John Connally, treasury secretary under former US president Richard Nixon: "The dollar is our currency, but your problem." Therefore, China should be prepared for the possible shockwaves caused by the withdrawal of the QE policy, because it will have severe impact on its economy, as well as on the rest of global economy.

The author is a researcher at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce.