Time of opportunities, challenges

Tasks

The projected rewards are huge, but the challenges are daunting.

Shanghai has embarked on building itself into a global financial center while moving to restructure its economy amid a climate of slower growth. However, it is hampered by its financial structure, regulatory environment and a prevailing sense of bureaucratic inertia.

Although the Chinese economy has seen a slight revival in recent months, two straight years of moderate growth set against a background of strict policy controls have threatened to derail the push to move in ambitious new directions.

As such, the free trade zone may serve as the city's white knight. While details remain vague, analysts believe the zone will become a catalyst to bolster the city's development and spur innovation.

Shanghai's economic output has fallen below the national average since early 2011, when local authorities vowed to move away from its dependence on bulk manufacturing to the service sector.

The transformation is just beginning to pay dividends. For instance, in the first half of this year, the service sector, which encompasses property, finance, telecommunications and tourism, saw faster growth than the agricultural and industrial sectors.

The service sector edged up 1.3 percentage points from 2011-12 and grew 9.6 percent to account for 61.7 percent of the city's GDP as China accelerates its transformation into a service-oriented and consumption-based economy.

However, such sweeping change has not managed to stem an overall decline in the city's economic growth. It missed the national GDP growth by 0.2 percentage point last year.

Trade also contracted for the first time in three years, with exports falling 1.4 percent year-on-year, according to data supplied by the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics.

From January to June, trade volume shrank 3.7 percent compared with the first six months of 2011, with exports dropping 4.3 percent and imports falling 3.2 percent over the same period.

According to Michael McDonough, senior economist at Bloomberg LP, slower growth is almost a "necessity" as China moves away from its reliance on exports and shifts toward greater domestic consumption, with the private sector posited as a major growth engine.

But according to the latest data in 2011, household consumption would need to increase by almost 1.5 percent to offset a 1 percent decline in China's gross capital, McDonough said.

Trade

"I think Shanghai has been one of the slowest-growing cities in China for a while. The free trade zone will definitely boost its growth in the long run," he said.

Others hope the FTZ will catapult Shanghai to the forefront of global trade and cement its status as a world-leading financial hub.

It will also help the city cut the costs of trade and improve efficiency, said Sun Lijian, a professor of economics at Fudan University.

"Goods in the zone may be landed, handled, manufactured or reconfigured and re-exported without the intervention of customs authorities," he said.

Sun said such a tariff-free environment would foster offshore trade and offer tantalizing new opportunities to Chinese exporters keen to expand their production capabilities to other low-cost markets in the region. He added that such eased rules would also help them concentrate on the higher-value-added front and back ends of the manufacturing process.

In the coming years, Shanghai's financial reforms may support China's gradual transition toward consumption-led growth, said Dan Steinbock, research director of international business at the India, China and America Institute in the US.

"In order to support the ordinary Chinese social model, the mainland needs more sophisticated financial services. When people feel that their future is more secure, they will consume more," he said.