Big turnaround or just a dead-cat bounce?

Gross domestic product in China grew 7.8 percent from July to September, the second-best performance since last year. The growth lifted the economy to a safe zone from what top policymakers deemed as the bottom line of 7.5 percent in the second quarter.

It is now safe to say China will meet its yearly target of GDP growth of at least 7.5 percent. It is very likely that growth for the year will be around 7.6 percent, or even higher.

But it is too early to celebrate, as economic figures in the third quarter delivered mixed messages. We need to see another quarter or two before we can answer this question: Is this economic rebound really solid and favorable?

There were two positive improvements in the third quarter.

The first is about manufacturing. A slew of indicators have shown that it is stabilizing. The official Purchasing Managers' Index hit a 17-month high of 51.5 points last month, showing that factories were turning on more machines thanks to better liquidity and more orders placed by Chinese and overseas buyers.

Manufacturing was the best performer among the three major industries. It beat mining and facility industries in terms of added value. Last month, the growth of added value of the manufacturing sector was 11.1 percent. It was a continuation of the double-digit growth witnessed since the start of the third quarter. In the second quarter, growth was below 10 percent.

Considering that China still counts a lot on manufacturing to propel economic growth and ensure employment, a rebound in the sector is a good sign.

The other positive sign was about trade.

With global demand rebounding, trade growth slightly recovered in the third quarter. Exports climbed 4 percent and imports 8.4 percent - better than the second quarter's 3.7 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Considering that the figures in the second quarter were artificially exaggerated because of speculative capital flows in the guise of foreign trade, especially in April, growth in the third quarter was remarkable. The speculative activities were checked only after authorities cracked down on fake trade and hot money flows slowed since May.

But not everything was cheerful.

China is still addicted to investment and the property market as a means to fuel the economy, a habit that is not helpful to China's economic restructuring.