Slowdown tests China's growth and reform

BEIJING - China's January and February economic data is no cause for optimism.

Annualized growth of industrial value added output slowed to 8.6-percent for January and February compared to 9.9 percent in the same period in 2013, the national bureau of statistics (NBS) announced on Thursday. Fixed-asset investment during the period grew 17.9 percent, down from 21.2 percent from a year ago, the slowest growth since Dec. 2002. Retail sales of consumer goods grew 11.8 percent, also slower. The figure was 12.3 percent a year ago and 13.6 percent in December.

"Pressure on the economy has intensified," said Xu Gao, chief macro-economic analyst at Everbright Securities.

February's manufacturing purchasing managers index dropped to 50.2, an eight-month low, and exports tumbled 18.1 percent.

"The slowdown of exports, investment and consumption in January and February, along with existing problems - including excessive production capacity, high inventories and credit defaults - are worries for the market," said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank.

A report from Guotai Jun'an Securities said that growth would slow, and predicted downward pressure in the first quarter in particular. Guotai Junan also reduced its first quarter growth forecast to 7.5 percent from 7.6 percent.

Hua Zhongwei of Huachuang Securities, argues that the fixed asset investment figures showed little investment demand, as local governments lower growth targets to restrain production capacities and control debt. He expects investment to lessen in coming months, as better supervision kicks in and capital sources become uncertain.

On Thursday, Premier Li Keqiang reflected on 2013, when the biggest challenge was pressure on growth. He acknowledged "very limited space for maneuver in fiscal and monetary policy" and "multiple tough choices in macro-control."

However, not all is gloom and doom.

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Job creation is main focus of stimulus, Li says

China's economy on right path, US expert says