Chinese market factors fuel iron ore price slump

"Money supply in China has been relatively weak, which is a key driver of property sales and property sales data has been very, very weak in April and parts of May," Deltec chief investment officer Atul Lele said.

However, other factors mean the outlook might not be as gloomy for Australian producers as the numbers suggest, certainly nowhere near as much as it was in September 2012 when the price of iron ore price plummeted to below $90.

That slump surprised and hurt many in Australia who were still hoping, misguidedly as it transpired, to continue riding the long- running mining boom into future, but that sobering experience and market factors have meant the industry is now far better prepared for a price fall.

In September 2012, when the iron ore price bottomed at $86.70, the Australian dollar was valued higher than its US equivalent, making it more expensive for Australian producers to do business.

Now that the Australian currency has fallen below the US currency to about $0.93, it is about 7 percent cheaper for Australian iron ore miners to do business. This is because their costs are generally in Australian currency, whereas their product revenue is in US currency.

Simply, the currency correction means seeing the price of iron ore fall to $100 per ton or below will hurt less now than it did in 2012.

Australia's iron ore producers might be operating on reduced margins but they are maintaining revenues by selling more products. Fortescue, for example, plans to export 41.6 million tons this quarter, while BHP Billinton has increased exports from 39.7 million tons to a proposed 70 million tons in the current quarter. Atlas Iron has almost doubled output this quarter. All this oversupply might be pushing the price down but ensures the money will still be coming in.

All Australia's miners now run leaner operations compared with the heady days of the mining boom. Having shed jobs and reduced debt in some instances, they are better able to weather price shocks.

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