Nomura sees business opportunities in CPC key plenum

BEIJING -- An important meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) that opened Monday will bring business opportunities for the Chinese economy thanks to expected key reform initiatives, Nomura Securities said in its latest research note.

Nomura's analysis came as the 18th CPC Central Committee convened its fourth plenary session on Monday with the main theme of advancing the rule of law in the world's most populous nation.

Implementing the rule of law for 1.3 billion people will create a large number of service sector jobs and help expand the country's middle-class consumption, Nomura said.

The plenum will help clarify medium-term macro expectations by finalizing the framework for a more independent and empowered judiciary and legislative branches in China, Nomura said.

In addition to the rule of law, Nomura also expected a clearer direction in rural land reform, especially in the area of an integrated rural-urban land market, as well as reforms in other areas such as state firms and the budget system.

With reforms likely to be gradual, Nomura said, the government has had to strike a hard balance between maintaining growth and launching reforms.

The Chinese government is likely to lower its 2015 GDP growth target to around 7 percent from around 7.5 percent for 2014 in a bid to accelerate reforms next year, according to Nomura's projection.

Aside from increased anti-corruption inspections, there have been several other reform initiatives involving the budget system, household registration and state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Calling the current SOE reform "a step in the right direction," Nomura said it is still being implemented on a trial basis for individual SOEs and needs a clearer framework for private participation.

The expected rural farmland reform will also free up manpower for other sectors of the economy by allowing more use of machinery on larger farms compared to smaller plots previously farmed by individual households, according to Nomura.

Due to the relative success of the anti-corruption campaign, Nomura is more confident about both the CPC leadership's commitment to reform and the ultimate outcome.

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