China's 2014 economic growth likely below 7.5%

TIANJIN -- China's economic growth for the full year of 2014 may not reach 7.5 percent and is even possible to fall below 7.3 percent given its continued downward pressure, said a Chinese economist.

The growth slowdown is inevitable as the country's economy is on a major shift from speed to quality, said Xiang Songzuo, chief economist at the Agricultural Bank of China, at an international mining meeting in the northern port city of Tianjin.

The country's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.3 percent from a year ago in the third quarter, compared with 7.5 percent in the second quarter and 7.4 percent in the first quarter of this year, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.

For the first nine months, the GDP rose 7.4 percent year on year to reach 42 trillion yuan ($6.84 trillion).

China's economy faces the overcapacity and investment slowdown in its manufacturing and real estate sectors, increasing risks of non-performing loans and private financial defaults and the weak recovery of global economy, which are all "bad news", said Xiang.

But he warned against any large-scale stimulus policies.

Despite downward pressure, Xiang said China's economy still has great potential for growth and big opportunities.

More capital is going to the service sector from manufacturing industries, an optimized allocation of resources, he said, adding the rapid growth of Chinese investment overseas has made the country one of the major exporters of global capital.

Meanwhile, the Internet is bringing about profound changes to traditional industries at an unprecedented speed, said the economist.

And good prospects can also be seen from the economic reforms which the country is pushing, he said.

The Chinese government eyes a full-year GDP growth target of "around 7.5 percent" for 2014, vague wording that allows room for deepened reforms amid slower growth.

Weak inflation makes more room for policy change	China's GDP in Q3 grows 7.3%