Chinese think tank predicts 6.9% GDP growth for 2015

A worker welds at a construction site in Yiliang, Yunnan province, February 28, 2015.[Photo/Agencies]

BEIJING - China's 2015 GDP growth is expected to be 6.9 percent, according to a report released by a state think tank on Monday.

Economic growth is likely to slow as institutional barriers such as a rigid household registration system and lack of human capital drag down GDP as China relies more on infrastructure development and consumption brought on by urbanization than manufacturing-based industrialization, according to a bluebook on China's GDP growth released by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The government's target for GDP growth in 2015 is about 7 percent. GDP growth stood at 7 percent in the first half of this year. Most economic indicators such as PMI showed weak performance in the first two months of the third quarter.

China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 49.7 in August, down from 50 for July, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The index fell into contraction territory for the third time this year, and the August reading was the lowest since August 2012.

The report pointed out that the next five years will be critical for China's economic transition to slower and steadier growth, and measures should be taken to deal with a reduction in labor supply, slowing investment and changing demand structures.

Improved total factor productivity is crucial to the Chinese economy's sustainable growth, especially in less developed central and western regions, the report noted, adding that better top-down reform design and fostering quality human capital will be key engines to power the transition.

China's gross domestic product growth for 2014 has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage point to 7.3 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics announced earlier this month. The revised GDP for 2014 came in at 63.61 trillion yuan ($10 trillion), down 32.4 billion yuan from the preliminary calculation figure that put the annual rate at 7.4 percent.