By Xin Zhiming, Fu Jing and Zhu Ping (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-01-16 08:19

"Usually, the skies open up in July and August during the rice-planting season. But only a very small part of the rain that falls collects in the fields; the rest just flows into the rivers. Nothing is stored in the reservoirs," says Ju, whose family used to grow rice in nearly one-third of a hectare till 1995. Now it has shifted to dry-land farming.

Ding is "optimistic" about this year's harvest, though. But he is cautious too. "The government will increase financial and technological inputs in agriculture" to help raise production, he says. The central agricultural work conference in late December decided to raise fiscal inputs in rural areas this year at a pace faster than last year's. It called for enhanced infrastructure improvement and more technical assistance, too.

The area for autumn and winter crops increased a bit last year, reversing the previous trend of a slight decline, Ding says. "It augurs well for this year's output." But that doesn't mean an end to uncertainties, especially because cultivable land is shrinking, analysts say. China has less than 1.83 billion mu (122 million hectares) of arable land, with a per capita acreage of about 0.09 hectare, one of the lowest in the world. The average arable land acreage for Chinese farmers has dropped from about 0.47 hectare in the early 1980s to about 0.27 hectare today, says Gong.

Rapid urbanization has been swallowing arable land. More often than not, "better quality arable falls prey to this phenomenon", says Xiao. And even though the government has vowed to ensure at least 120 million hectares of arable land, analysts say it would not be enough.

"Local governments don't get any incentive for protecting arable land, even though the central government wants them to do so," says Li. So they don't think twice before using arable land to set up industrial units because it means higher revenue than what they can earn from agriculture.

"Some governments at the county and township levels see urbanization and industrial production as panacea for poverty, low rate of literacy, economic backwardness and every other illness," says an official of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. "Agriculture isn't considered important in their policymaking because it can't bring quick returns that can improve their career."

These officials "even entice farmers into shifting to cash crops to make more money", Li says. And that definitely doesn't improve the situation.

Back in Nachong's hilly suburb, Jiang Lutao is tending to pigs in Zhang Qin's 2,900-mu agricultural zone. The other side of the hill is now barren because no one tends to the land there, Jiang says.

Zhang is a former embroidery worker who began raising pigs in the 1990s. Today, she runs a farm on rented land, 1,800 mu (120 hectares) of which is arable and the rest (73 hectares) barren. She employs 80 fulltime and more than 160 part-time workers, and some agricultural technicians.

Praising Zhang's entrepreneurial skills, Jiang says: "My pay here is almost the same as that I used to get in Guangdong. But I have an added benefit working here: I can take care of my parents and children. And I save the hundreds of yuan I used to spend on long-distance calls."

Similar farms are being run in other areas, and more are in the pipeline. The mushroom growing area in Yuechi county, for instance, increased from 2,870 mu (191.3 hectares) in 2006 to 8,470 mu (564.7 hectares) last year. He Qixiao, a 67-year-old farmer in Yuechi's Qiaojia town says: "I can earn 12,000 yuan ($1,650) from every mu (0.06 hectare) a year if I grow mushrooms, and it is certainly more profitable than wheat." Then there's Suining's Anju district, which is building a rose garden on nine hectares to draw more tourists.

Cheng Shulan has visited and studied many agricultural zones. The professor with Renmin University of China's School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development says such operations alone can't guarantee enough grain supply. "If such operations go out of control, they can strip farmers of their land."

The weaning away of rural laborers from their farms is a more serious problem. "The loss of farm laborers will have a much bigger impact (on rural production)," says Li Hongjia, head of a village in Inner Mongolia. His fears are not without reason because more than 35 percent of his fellow villagers now work outside.

"The grain production cycle is long and its reward low so farmers readily give up their land for short-term gains," says Cheng, "without realizing its value."

Xiao adds: "Even developed economies such as the US and Europe still intervene to keep farm product prices at a certain level, though they revise them from time to time."

Give all these uncertainties and threats, China needs a combination of efforts - government measures to stop acquisition of arable land for industrial use, incentives to farmers to grow more food grains, protective shield against the elements and steps to fight climate change - to ensure a stable and secure supply of food to the people.

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