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Data mixed on China's road to recovery

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-05-14 21:04

At Home, Car Sales Brisk

Despite discouraging data on the industrial front, policy makers have taken heart from consumer behavior in recent months, which seems to show that the effort to get more economic growth out of domestic demand and less from external factors is succeeding.

GDP expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter, and the domestic consumption provided the largest share at 4.3 percentage points, accounting for 70.5 percent of the total growth. Investment generated another 2 points, accounting for 32.8 percent of the total growth, while the decline in exports shaved 0.2 point of the total, according to NBS figures.

The economy expanded by 10.6 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2008. Consumption accounted for 44.4 percent of total GDP growth, with investment generating another 46.7 percent and exports providing the remaining 8.9 percent of the total, according to Zhu Baoliang, an expert with the NBS.

China has become the world's largest vehicle market, with more than 2.67 million cars sold in the first quarter, up 3.88 percent year on year.

Car sales were buoyed by government stimulus policies, said Zhang Yunpeng, an analyst with Beijing-based Huarong Securities. In January, China halved the purchase tax on passenger cars to 5 percent for models with engine displacements of less than 1.6 liters.

More than 1.15 million vehicles were sold last month in China, up 25 percent in terms of units, while sales in the United States fell 34.4 percent year on year to 819,540 units, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Other NBS figures this week showed that retail sales rose 14.8 percent in April year on year to 934.32 billion yuan, and the 18.5 percent monthly vehicle sales growth in terms of sales revenue dwarfed other items by 3.7 percentage points.

Private-sector housing sales rose 8.2 percent year on year in 70 mid-sized and large cities in the first quarter, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other metropolises.

"Auto and home sales were the most important consumption sectors and their revival showed a trend of consumption recovery in China. This would stimulate the growth of related industries," said Zhang Liqun.

Boosted by the surge in housing transactions, sales of construction and interior decoration materials rose 10.8 percent in April from a year earlier, according to the NBS.

More Confidence, Time Needed

Zhuang Jian, a senior economist with the Asian Development Bank office in Beijing, told Xinhua that although sales of cars and homes had picked up in recent months, Chinese consumers needed to have more confidence before they would spend and invest more. The government needed to take new, responsive measures as new situations emerged.

Zhuang also noted that contradictory data had been seen from time to time in earlier years in China, when the country's economy was maturing, and there still might be some difficulties ahead.

He added that it had only been half a year since the major stimulus plan was announced and it would be wise to wait for another quarter to see the effects of the stimulus package.

"The stimulus has already paid off, with rising investment in government-supported projects. As the weather in the second quarter is more suitable for construction work, we can expect this type of investment would continue to grow," Zhang Liqun said.

China's fixed-asset investment jumped 28.8 percent to 2.81 trillion yuan in the first quarter. The growth pace accelerated further to 34 percent in April.

Stock Market Upbeat

Stock market investors are interpreting the economic data positively. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was up more than 44 percent this year as of Wednesday.

Zhang Liqun said that after last year's plunge, when the market sank more than two-thirds from its peak in mid-October 2007, equities had rallied along with regional markets. Investors had gained confidence that an economic recovery was at hand.

Analysts said they expected further gains in shares, car sales and housing transactions in the coming months, but they warned that economic data could still be confusing and disappointing.

The ADB forecast in a March report that China's economy might grow 7 percent this year.

"Judging from current conditions, economic growth might even exceed that forecast," Zhuang said.

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