Slower growth as reform kicks in, Nomura says

Economic growth will slow further, with structural reform gradually kicking in in 2014, Nomura said in its 2014 Global Annual Economic Outlook released this week.

China’s GDP growth peaked at 7.8 percent year-on-year in the third quarter and will slow to 7.5 percent in the fourth, the report said.

GDP growth will be 7.1 year-on-year in the first quarter of 2014 and 6.7 percent in the second, and our full-year forecast is for growth of 6.9 percent in 2014, it said.

Policy tightening will be a major theme for next year, the report added, affecting the property market and infrastructure investment.

The report suggested that the government will cut its GDP growth target for 2014 to 7 percent from 7.5 percent at the Central Economic Working Conference in December, providing room for gradual de-leveraging and structural reform.

Inflation climbed to an eight-month high of 3.2 percent in October as food costs rose.

Monetary policy has already started to tighten and credit growth will remain weak in the fourth quarter this year and the first of next, the report said.