Quake to have limited impact on insurers

BEIJING - Finance analysts have said that a massive earthquake that recently jolted Southwest China is unlikely to have a significant impact on Chinese insurers, even though their stock prices tumbled following the quake.

A 7.0-magnitude quake hit Lushan county in Southwest China's Sichuan province on April 20, leaving at least 196 people dead and more than 13,400 others injured. It also displaced nearly 300,000 people and caused widespread property damage.

The shares of Shanghai-and Shenzhen-listed insurers took a hit in the week after the quake, with leading companies like China Ping An and China Pacific Insurance down 7 percent.

The benchmark Shanghai composite index moved down 3 percent after the quake. The market is closed until May 2 for the May Day holiday.

Analysts cited investor concerns about potentially large insurance payouts as a reason for the fluctuation, but maintained that the panic is unwarranted.

The initial response from the market was only "psychological and emotional", said Peng Yulong, an analyst at Guotai Junan Securities.

"It was largely a mental impact and it will took some time for the market to absorb it. But we do not expect it to drag on for long," wrote Chen Jiangang and Tong Nan, both analysts at Sinolink Securities.

Insurance payouts for the quake currently total more than 10 million yuan ($1.62 million), as reported by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) on April 21, one day after the quake.

Predictions for the total payout have varied substantially. GF Securities estimates the payout will be between 40 and 90 million yuan, while China Securities believes it will run up to 2 billion yuan.

However, even a large payout would only cause limited damage to insurance companies, China Securities said. Losses would come out to about 1 percent or less of an individual company's annual profits, according to the company's research.

The amount is insignificant compared to the 1 trillion yuan in direct economic losses that resulted from the deadly 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, which also occurred in Sichuan. Total payouts amounted to 1.66 billion yuan for the Wenchuan quake, according to CIRC.