PBOC says chances of double-dip slim

Signs of slowdown in economic growth, but nation's fundamentals remain robust

BEIJING - The People's Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, said on Tuesday that while it is possible for China's economic growth to slow, the chances of a "double dip" are seen as slim.

Current economic development has revealed signs of a slowdown in the country's growth, though the economic fundamentals remain strong, the nation's central bank said in a report posted on its official website.

The central bank made this judgment based upon the purchasing managers' index for the country's manufacturing sector remaining above the boom-bust line of 50 percent, although the pace of the increase has decelerated.

In addition, investment and retail sales continue to show strong growth, plus the global economy is improving.

Further, the European sovereign debt crisis is not expected to have a large impact on China's economy, it said.

The country's gross domestic product increased 10.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, slower than the 11.9 percent growth in the first quarter and the 10.7 percent expansion in the last quarter of 2009.

The central bank's report said the current slowdown in China's GDP growth was a correction following the earlier excessive expansion and also a result of the government's macro regulations that aimed at curbing steep property price increases, easing local government debt risks and avoiding possible inflation.

"It is good for rebalancing the economic structure and achieving a sustainable economic growth," the report said.

The central bank said that the country's new bank lending would be within the 7.5-trillion-yuan ($1.1 trillion) target in 2010 if the increase is maintained at the June level.

China's new yuan-denominated loans for the first half of the year reached 4.63 trillion yuan, down by 2.74 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year.

Xinhua

(China Daily 07/28/2010 page16)