Preparing for effects of population trends

The National Bureau of Statistics recently highlighted some significant results from China's Sixth National Population Census that point to some major changes in the country's population trends - changes that will affect the economy.

First, the annual growth rate of China's population has slowed remarkably in the past 10 years compared with the previous decade. Second, the percentage of both the working age population and the aged population have grown, while the proportion of children aged under 14 has declined, indicating an overall aging of the population. Third, education levels rose during the decade and literacy rates have continued to increase. Fourth, the urbanization process has been faster than expected, with almost 50 percent of the total population living in urban environments and an increase in the percentage of permanent residents in developed coastal provinces, while the population has fallen in the underdeveloped heartland provinces.

These trends make it necessary to explore the likely effects of the changing population structure on economic growth, inflation, property prices and the development of financial markets.