Oil prices will drive cars off the road

Just when Chinese cities are reaching saturation point with automobiles, the wheels are falling off the love affair with private cars, as millions of drivers now think twice before using their prized machines. Rising petrol prices are the main factor behind this trend, but parking and maintenance costs and a possible accident all help tilt the scales in favor of alternative means of transport. This trend will accelerate and city planners should act now to implement intelligent long-term policies.

In the past decade the private car has become an object of worship in Chinese cities, the slightest bump necessitating hours of on-the-spot anguished scrutiny that in all likelihood will bring traffic to a standstill. The English like to say that a man's home is his castle; in China a man's castle is his car, a private space here he can feel safe from the hostile forces besieging him on all sides.

The big drawback to using a car, of course, is actually trying to get anywhere, as in most cities the traffic is bumper to bumper. TV advertisements - and the billboards staring you in the face when you crawl along at a pace slower than a snail - like to show a car cruising a long, open road with no other vehicle in sight. But reality fails to live up to its billing and instead its stop-start chock-a-block from home to office and back again. Surveys show the average commuting time in Chinese cities is just under an hour, with drivers having slightly shorter travel times than those using public transport, except when accidents or weather add hours to the journey.