Sequestration could affect Asia 'rebalancing' plan

Stiff US budget cuts due to take effect on Friday because of a political standoff over burgeoning debt could crimp US military activity in the Asia-Pacific region, just as Washington seeks to reassure friends and allies of its staying power in the region.

The effect is unlikely to be sudden or stark. There won't be a dramatic withdrawal of US forces from bases in South Korea and Japan. But it could mean fewer military exercises and operations by ships and aircraft in the region, even as the United States winds down its war in Afghanistan.

While the administration says it is committed to its strategy of "rebalancing" toward Asia, a sense of foreboding pervades US policymakers due to uncertainty over how the 9 percent cut in the defense budget and lesser cuts in other branches of government will be absorbed, and how it will affect the US' standing as a Pacific power.

The sequester, as the automatic cuts are called in Washington-speak, is the result of a deadline set after earlier negotiations on trimming the debt by $1.2 trillion over a decade hit an impasse.

It's hard to gauge the effect of the cuts. They are certain to be felt most acutely at home with military personnel facing forced leave, and a freeze in hiring civilian contractors. But they will also be felt in US operations overseas. One aircraft carrier has already delayed a planned trip to the Persian Gulf.

The US wants to scale back its emphasis on the turbulent Middle East and build up its presence in Asia, a region of growing economic importance but roiled by political tensions.

Bonnie Glaser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank said Asia-Pacific nations are already insecure about US commitment to the region, although it retains 80,000 troops in Japan and South Korea.

That's partly driven by uncertainty over whether US Secretary of State John Kerry will be as focused on the region as his predecessor, Hillary Clinton. She made her first overseas trip as the top US diplomat to Asia, while Kerry opted for a marathon swing across Europe and the Middle East.

Glaser said the budget cuts would only exacerbate concerns about whether Washington can sustain its level of engagement.

The best-case scenario on resolving the budget standoff is if Democrats and Republicans reach agreement in the coming weeks and stop the cuts. There's no sign that's imminent, but pressure for a deal will intensify by late March, when the government faces a possible shutdown.

As things stand, the Pentagon has to cut $46 billion in spending through to the end of September. It faces more cuts in future years unless a compromise is reached.

The military also has to absorb a $487 billion reduction in defense spending over the next 10 years, mandated by legislation in 2011. Worsening matters, the failure to agree on a budget for this year has kept spending levels at last year's rates. That's already hampering plans to roll out the new Asia-orientated defense strategy.

"This is no way to run a railway and certainly no way to run a defense department," Russell Trood, an Australian defense expert, told a conference on the Asia rebalance at Washington's Georgetown University this week. "This does nothing for America's credibility in the region."

The administration has sent mixed messages about the effect of the cuts.

Two weeks ago, Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton Carter warned lawmakers of a near-term "readiness crisis". Among the litany of effects on the military, he said there could be a one-third reduction in operations of navy ships and aircraft in the Asia-Pacific region.

In Guam, Pacific Air Forces commander General Herbert Carlisle said he believes the cuts could threaten America's role as a superpower.

But this week, US defense chiefs adopted a more reassuring tone.

Mark Lippert, the top defense official for Asia-Pacific, acknowledged "everything is on the table" in terms of what could be cut, but reaffirmed the US intent to base some 60 percent of its navy ships in the region by 2020 - up from about 50 percent now - and to increase the number of air force aircraft in the region by 2017.

"There's a strong sense within the administration that the rebalance is a priority and we'll work to make that continue," Lippert, a former top aide to Obama, said.

Even with the cuts, the Pentagon will maintain a budget, adjusted for inflation, of well over $500 billion a year for the rest of the decade.

The administration is always keen to stress that the "pivot" to Asia is as much about diplomatic, economic and trade ties with Asia as the US military footprint. The boost in military assets in the region over the past two years has been modest. There's a new deployment of up to 2,500 Marines in northern Australia; starting in April, Singapore will host US combat vessels; and more US forces are expected to rotate through the Philippines.

But the political effect has been considerable.

"The consequences are that US-China relations have been deeply damaged in the past two years," said retired admiral Yang Yi, former director of the Institute for Strategic Studies at the PLA National Defense University.

(China Daily 03/02/2013 page8)