Out with old guard in Qatar, but little change expected

The succession of power in Qatar is not expected to disrupt the tiny Gulf state's rising international political influence or its role as an economic powerhouse with a global reach, analysts say.

The unprecedented decision by the 61-year-old emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, to abdicate in favor of his 33-year-old son Sheik Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani is expected to be followed by a government reshuffle that will also see the old guard take a bow, the experts add.

Sheik Hamad used a televised address to note repeatedly the importance of shifting leadership to more youthful hands.

"The future lies ahead of you, the children of this homeland, as you usher into a new era where young leadership hoists the banner," the emir said as he announced the anticipated transition to the British-educated crown prince Sheik Tamim.

Sheik Hamad is stepping down after 18 years as the ruler of Qatar, which he drove into modernization and a political and economic player to be reckoned with, thanks to its immense gas wealth.

He is leaving his son a "stable country that has good ties with its Gulf neighbors, namely Saudi Arabia", said analyst Abdelwahab Badrakhan.

"I don't expect any changes in the policies of Qatar," he said.

British-educated Sheik Tamim is expected to gradually make his own mark and "find his way" although still following in his father's footsteps, Badrakhan added.

In 2010 Qatar became the richest country in the world per capita, thanks to a savvy and aggressive investment policy pursued by the emirate's sovereign wealth fund, the Qatar Investment Authority.

Under Sheik Hamad's rule it has built a multi-billion-dollar empire with investment ranging from Germany's Volkswagen to French energy giant Total, Britain's Sainsbury supermarket chain and Barclays Bank.

Regional powerhouse

Qatar also developed the first pan-Arab satellite channel, Al-Jazeera, which also broadcasts in English, and is preparing to conquer the United States with the launch of Al-Jazeera America.

The tiny Gulf peninsula holds the world's third-largest gas reserves and produces roughly 77 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year, making it the world's largest supplier.

On the political front Qatar has played a role in Middle East affairs massively out of proportion to its size, becoming a major backer of the "Arab Spring" uprisings in both Libya and Syria.

Just last weekend, the Qatari capital hosted a meeting of the Friends of Syria group of Arab and Western governments that back the Syrian rebels.

Analyst Neil Partrick, an expert on the Gulf, said Sheik Tamim "is unlikely to affect major changes without consulting his father" due to the sensitive foreign portfolios that he will be dealing with.

French journalist Olivier Da Lage, an expert on Gulf affairs and author of several books including one on Qatar, agrees that Sheik Tamim is not expected to set about making changes.

"At first we should not expect spectacular changes in Qatar's policies, which are part of a long-term strategy and has mostly succeeded," Da Lage said.

"The new emir will take his first steps under the watchful eyes of his father," he added. "In time he will tweak his style."

Salman Shaikh, who heads the Brookings Doha Centre, said Sheik Hamad's decision to hand over power to Sheik Tamim "is consistent with Qatar's policies".

He also expected no changes on the political and diplomatic front, echoing several analysts who stressed that Sheik Tamim had been groomed for years to take over from his father. "Sheikh Tamim is not new and has been well prepared," he said.

AFP-AP

(China Daily 06/26/2013 page11)