What does end of QE mean for EMs?

Most of the emerging world should take the end of the US Federal Reserve's third phase of quantitative easing in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to emerging markets has often been exaggerated. And while some emerging markets look vulnerable as rates in the United States move up, it's far more likely that growth in the major EMs will be held back by homegrown problems than by the actions of the Fed.

The Fed confirmed the end of its asset purchases under QE3 on Oct 30. Anticipation that it would start to scale back purchases proved the trigger for last year's "taper tantrum" in which markets across the emerging world fell sharply. Looking ahead, the majority view appears to be that the end of policy stimulus in the US will pose a stiff headwind for EM growth in the coming years.

We at (Capital Economics) would be wary of dismissing the potential fallout from the end of QE and the eventual tightening of US policy altogether. But the worst fears that it could trigger a spate of crises across the emerging world are overdone. Our Global Markets service is the place to look for detailed analysis of what impact QE has had on EM financial markets, but the short point is that it does not seem to have been a major support for equities.