Two-child policy alone can't fix aging problem

China has formally introduced a national two-child policy. Most newspaper reports say the move is aimed at addressing the problem of the country's rapidly aging population. In late January, an article in China Daily, headlined "Two-child policy to add 30 m workers", was accompanied by a second-deck headline, "Scrapping one-child policy should help China ease challenges of aging society". The article quoted Yuan Xin of Nankai University, who suggested that the fertility rate would increase to about two children per woman by 2018 (up from about 1.3-1.5 today).

However, these demographic expectations from the policy reform need to be tempered somewhat. There seems to be a view among many that the "one-child policy" operates as a kind of pressure valve, holding down Chinese fertility. In this view, most of the couples are currently allowed to have one child, but would like to have more. As such, reforms mean that more children come "on stream" and, hence, create a better balance between "workers" and "older people".

This is wrong.