Coping with Tsai's conjuring of 'de facto independence'

As expected, the inauguration speech by Tsai Ing-wen avoided any reference to the 1992 Consensus. This is consistent with her long-standing position of no commitment to the one-China principle.

Tsai's consistent message, albeit ostensibly ambiguous, is either "two Chinas" or "de facto independence", which is why she shuns the consensual atmosphere that her predecessor Ma Ying-jeou and the mainland established. She contends that Ma's endorsing of the Consensus and the goodwill extended by the mainland as a result, although benefiting Taiwan's economy, have reduced Taiwan to being like a beggar at the mercy of the mainland's benevolence. As a result, Taiwan is dependent on the mainland's continued goodwill, which she believes has strengthened the mainland's leverage over her government.

Strategically, Tsai's avoidance of any direct acknowledgement of the Consensus is meant to eventually break the mainland's leverage. Thus the status quo to which she has pledged to adhere has nothing to do with the consensual policy of one China that Ma embraced. Rather, it is purely a policy supported exclusively by her constituency in Taiwan, and has nothing at all to do with any agreement with the mainland.