Economists predict light economic rebound in Q4

BEIJING -- China's economic growth will recover in the final three months of the year after a bottoming-out in the third quarter, economists predicted.

The disappearing stockpile pressure, improvement in overseas markets, and the pace of investment were among the factors that pointed toward a rebound, according to economists in a China Securities Journal report Wednesday.

Special coverage: China Economy by Numbers - Sept

However, they said that the recovery will be slight.

Lian Ping, chief economist with the Bank of Communications, said that companies had started increased inventories after almost a year of stockpile-reduction activities, which will boost demand.

Lian forecast exports in the fourth quarter will outperform the first half due to demand from overseas markets, China's trade-boosting policies and a traditional seasonal rise in exports toward the year end.

China's exports staged a surprise surge in September rising 9.9 percent to $186.35 billion. The growth rate sharply increased from 2.7 percent in August.

Ha Jiming, vice-chairman and chief investment strategist of Goldman Sach's investment management division for China, said better-than-expected exports may be unsustainable as it was possibly caused by an exports rush last month before an eight-day National Day holiday.

Ha said "we also need to notice that the global economy has been trending positively".

China's customs agency said the nation's trade with its second-largest trade partner, the US, increased 9.1 percent to $355.42 billion during the first nine months of 2012. Growth in the world's largest economy increased by 2 percent and 1.3 percent in the first and second quarter respectively this year.

Secretary-General of the China Society of Macroeconomics Wang Jian is more cautious. He said China's economy may continue to trend downward as the decrease of external demand will dampen growth.

He noted that despite the trade rise with the US, China's trade with the European Union, China's largest trade partner, fell 2.7 percent year-on-year to $410.99 billion in the first nine months. Meanwhile, trade with Japan dipped 1.8 percent to $248.76 billion.

Huang Yiping, chief economist at Barclays Capital Asia Limited, noted that the ongoing Canton Fair, China's largest trade fair, will be a window to see whether the short-term exports rebound will sustain into the fourth quarter.

Lian Ping forecast that the fourth-quarter GDP and the annual GDP will both grow 7.8 percent. He predicted that GDP will dip to 7.5 percent in the third quarter from 7.6 percent in the second quarter.

The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to issue an update on the third-quarter GDP on Thursday. Meanwhile, data on fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial output as well as property prices will also be released on Thursday.