WASHINGTON - This year is expected to mark a turning point in the worldwide tourism industry following the post-September 11 slump, especially as China emerges as a lucrative new source of tourists ready to travel the globe.

A group of contestants for Miss China/Tourism 2006 pose on boats along canals in Xitang, 06 April 2006. This year is expected to mark a turning point in the worldwide tourism industry following the post-September 11 slump, especially as China emerges as a lucrative new source of tourists ready to travel the globe. [AFP]

Jean-Claude Baumgarten, president of the World Travel and Tourism Council, predicts the industry will grow an average 4.2 percent for the next 10 years.

"The new element we are observing in 2006 is that the industry is experiencing continuous growth for the first time since September 11, 2001," Baumgarten told AFP, speaking on the sidelines of a council forum held this year in the US capital.

"And this trend will undoubtedly continue for the next 10 years," he said. "It is going to be a good period of time for our industry."

But not all the markets will experience the same rate of growth. Growth is expected to be moderate in older markets like Europe or the United States, but very strong in emerging economies like India and China.

"We are in a new era of tourism and travel as global demographics are changing at a very rapid rate," said J.W. Marriott, Jr., chairman and CEO of Marriott International, Inc., a worldwide hotel chain. "China and India have a huge impact because numbers are so large."

The council projects that tourism from China will grow at the annual rate of eight percent over the next decade.

Infrastructure however will have to be considerably upgraded.

Hotel supply is not yet sufficient, said Baumgarten. "There are four- and five-star hotels as well as traditional establishments. But there is substantial growth potential in the area of moderately-priced hotels," he said.

Air transport will also experience spectacular growth. "It is expected that China will buy 2,000 commercial aircraft in the 10 coming years," Baumgarten said. "That means that Boeing along with Airbus will have a lot of work."

And the Chinese will be increasingly courted by foreign tour operators. "We are at a historic turning point," said Mei Yunxin, president of Beijing Tourism Group. "After huge domestic growth in tourism, now many Chinese people are preparing for their first foreign travel, and one of the key issues in their choice of country, alongside geography and culture, will be the safety of Chinese travelers abroad".

However, risks exist alongside opportunities in the tourism sector.

In addition to geopolitical concerns, industry officials are wondering how a possible worldwide pandemic could affect world travel.

"The new test for resilience is bird flu," said Gene Sperling, an economic adviser to former president Bill Clinton. "Is it just a local or regional impact or does it impact at international level where tourists choose to travel? And what kinds of communication strategies can be done?"

The French, meanwhile, ask themselves how recent social upheavals in the country could affect tourism.

"What we see is not good for tourism," Baumgarten pointed out. "It negatively affects reservations as well as the country's image."

"The good news," he went on to say, "is that the country recovers quickly from events of this type. But we'll have to do advertising work."

However, there is no significant concern at the French tourism office in New York.

"The impact so far has been very small, almost to the point of being negligible," said Marion Fourestier, a spokeswoman for the office. Of the 4,000 inquiries we receive every month, only between three percent and six percent come from people, who worry how protests could affect their travel."