Inflation in China might reach a two-year high in February, according to a poll of 21 economists by Bloomberg News, increasing the pressure on the central bank to raise interest rate.

The Consumer Price Index, a key indicator of inflation, went up 2.8 per cent year-on-year after witnessing a 2.2 per cent rise in January, according to the median estimate of the polled economists.

A consumer shops at a super market in Shanghai January 10, 2007. Inflation in China might reach a two-year high in February, according to a poll of 21 economists by Bloomberg News, increasing the pressure on the central bank to raise interest rate.  [newsphoto]

That was a sharp increase from the 1.5 per cent rise in 2006, but leveled the growth in last December, and slightly below the central bank's target of 3 per cent for the year.

The price hike was mainly driven by rising food costs, which was partly caused by a shortage in the global grain markets. Moreover, the Spring Festival, the Chinese Lunar New Year in February helped push up food prices.

Central bank officials have pledged on several occasions this year that they would use all kinds of measures to rein in inflation, including raising the interest rate. The National Bureau of Statistics will release the CPI figure tomorrow.

Ha Jiming, chief economist at China International Capital Corp. in Beijing, expected the central bank to raise the interest rate if finding the combined inflation number in January and February above 2.5 per cent.

However, an interest rate rise is expected to attract more "hot money" into China, said analysts, adding to the excess liquidity plaguing the central bank.

Reining in excess liquidity is a priority of Beijing's monetary policy, said Central Bank Vice Governor Wu Xiaoling in an article published by the People's Daily in February. However, interest rate could hardly contribute to this end, said Wu.

The central bank in February ordered lenders to set aside more money as reserves for the fifth time in eight months. Lenders must set aside 10 percent of deposits, up from 9.5 percent.

The central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate twice since April. The current one-year benchmark lending rate stood at 6.12 percent.