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Less hiring expected in first quarter of '09

By Liu Jie (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-01-09 07:41

The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers' intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the quarter.

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The new report shows that the Net Employment Outlook (NEO) for China stands at positive 10 percent in the first quarter of 2009, a decline of 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 5 percentage points year-over-year.

The NEO figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment.

For China, the survey for the first quarter was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of 3,727 employers from the cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dalian, Chongqing, Chengdu, Wuhan, Qingdao and Xi'an.

Survey participants were asked: "How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March as compared to the previous quarter?"

Managing Director of Manpower Greater China Lucille Wu attributed the less optimistic hiring activity to the impact of the global financial crisis.

"The current financial tsunami has impacts on the job prospects in the financial and banking industry. Nevertheless, the government's 4 trillion yuan package to revitalize the country's slowing economy will greatly stimulate domestic consumption and growth, and increase employment," Wu said. "The vast majority of employers are telling us that they will take a 'wait and see' approach before hiring or further reducing staff. Thus, we are not anticipating any major fluctuations in the labor market in the first quarter of 2009. We believe hiring intentions will revive in the near future."

"Companies could utilize a more flexible workforce such as temporary staffing and part-time labor to manage employment costs and risks, enhancing the ability to resist external changes," Wu suggested.

She added that those who possess senior management skills are still in high demand.

Quarter-over-quarter, hiring prospects have weakened in seven of the 10 cities, but the forecasts for headcount growth have strengthened in Xi'an and Chongqing.

The weakest hiring activity was reported by employers in Shanghai, with NEO of positive 1 percent, down by 8 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2008. Employers in Qingdao reported an upbeat NEO of 17 percent for the first quarter.

After the removal of seasonal variations from the survey data, NEO is declining in five of the six industrial sectors quarter-over-quarter. The most pronounced change was in the finance, insurance and real estate sectors, with a decline of 6 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2008 to a positive 13 percent this quarter.

Employers in the wholesale and retail trade industrial sector continued to predict weaker hiring plans this quarter, with NEO of positive 6 percent, the weakest for the sector since the second quarter of 2005.

Globally, the vast majority of employers expect to slow the pace of hiring compared to the last quarter. Employers in 30 of the 33 countries and regions surveyed were forecasting a slower hiring pace during January to March.

In the Asia-Pacific region, employers in all eight countries and regions surveyed reported weaker hiring plans, as businesses begin to feel the impact of the downturn in the West.

The slowest hiring activity is expected in Taiwan province and Singapore, where negative hiring expectations were reported.

(China Daily 01/09/2009 page15)