Students log on for lessons in progress

The rise of massive open online courses — a new generation of Web learning — may revolutionize study and the way universities teach, a Ministry of Education official has predicted.

"Although these types of open-source courses are only offered by a few elite universities, the trend will grow," said Li Zhimin, director of the ministry's Science and Technology Development Center.

Analysts say these courses will result in a higher education revolution — instead of educating only a selected few on college campuses, access to college education will be free for everyone.

The new online classes, launched by major universities in the United States in 2012, have resulted in the enrollment of millions of students worldwide.

In 50 years — maybe much sooner — half of the 4,500 colleges and universities operating in the US will cease to exist, said Nathan Harden, editor of The College Fix, a higher education news website, when speaking last year about changes driven by IT technology in higher education.

Li said a similar scenario may happen in China.

"It's expected that some universities may fold even earlier than the 50 years predicted, with the popularity of the new online courses," Li added.

A 12-week online course on bioinformatics offered by Peking University has attracted 13,770 students at home and abroad since it was launched in September.

Bioinformatics is an interdisciplinary field that develops and improves on methods for storing, retrieving, organizing and analyzing biological data.

The course is taught through a platform created by Coursera, a social entrepreneurship company founded by two Stanford University professors.

The two other online platforms providing the new courses are Udacity, also founded by a Stanford faculty member, and edX, jointly founded by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University.

Professor Wei Liping, from Peking University's School of Life Sciences, said: "The amazing power of the Internet brought more than 10,000 people from around the world together, making the MOOCs possible. But diverse student backgrounds are a real challenge for instructors."

Her team conducted several surveys and found that up to 65 percent of the students who registered for the courses live in more than 40 countries.

Of the students in China, more than 80 percent come from economically developed regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, and have a good command of English.

"Therefore, we provided lecture videos in Chinese and slides with English subtitles," she said. "Also, the new online courses have been run in synchronization with classes on campus to encourage interaction between on-campus students and those online."

Pubudu Nawarathna, an undergraduate student from the University of Colombo in Sri Lanka, said the way instructors explain and provide material is very interesting, even though she cannot understand Chinese.

"I like to study with subtitles and watch videos. ... This course is very helpful," Nawarathna said.

Li, from the Ministry of Education, said that compared with previous online education systems, the new courses enhance a comprehensive approach to teaching and study.

By taking these courses, students can share their opinions with others and receive immediate feedback. They can also gain certificates issued by course instructors once they pass grading requirements for assignments and exams.

Students can pass Wei's course and receive certificates after scoring 70 marks out of 100. The total score consists of the results of 10 tests and two exams.

Li said: "Of the 13,770 students registered for the course, around 100 are from Peking University. They can get two credits when they pass both the online course and an additional 15-20-minute presentation.

"When such certificates, especially those issued by well known colleges and universities, become more acceptable and help people to secure better jobs in specific sectors, colleges with small endowments will see a decline in student demand."

A Chinese platform will be launched to provide the new online courses, and will be set up by domestic colleges and universities, Li added, without giving a specific schedule.

However, some analysts say it is too early to assess the long-term effects of the courses.

Stephen Gomez, an online education specialist at the Higher Education Academy in Britain, said the new system for online education cannot replace traditional teaching in higher education, at least in the near future.

Zhao Xinying contributed to this story.