Reality will rule after US polls

Beijing must be thinking that the American presidential election in November cannot come too soon after a prolonged period of the two candidates trying to outdo each other on who is tougher on China.

Compared with many Western nations where election campaigns run a few weeks (just two weeks in the United Kingdom), the United States has a long history of drawn-out contests, which distracts an incumbent president seeking re-election for at least the final year of his first term in office. During that period there is a tendency for less to get done as the US president hopes for re-affirmation of his support. Should the rival succeed, there is the time lag to taking office, getting settled in, developing a new team and implementing policy.

Of course, how fast things move after either result also depends on the balance of power in US Congress. It is said that many Americans favor a stabilizing factor of a president from one party and a Congress with a majority for the other party to prevent extreme change.